Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Fed Decision Looms; Oil Exhibit Correction?

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Updated: Mar 19, 2024, 10:32 UTC

Key Points:

Oil retreats amid Russian supply hikes and subdued jet fuel demand, with Federal Reserve decision awaited.
Natural Gas edges up, facing resistance and support levels that hint at cautious market sentiment.
WTI and Brent Oil show slight declines, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish trend above pivot points.

Market Overview

Oil prices saw a minor retreat on Tuesday, influenced by potential supply increases from Russia, subdued jet fuel demand, and market caution before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Despite reaching four-month highs fueled by reduced crude exports from key Middle Eastern countries and positive economic signals from China and the U.S., concerns over Russian supply, due to both conflict impacts and strategic export adjustments, added downward pressure. Analysts from JP Morgan highlighted the delicate balance Russia maintains between output cuts and stable exports.

With the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and mixed forecasts for jet fuel demand, the oil market braces for potential volatility, reflecting broader implications for both oil and natural gas forecasts as global economic conditions continue to evolve.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

On March 19, Natural Gas (NG) marked a modest increase, edging up by 0.17% to a price of $1.8190. This upward movement situates Natural Gas just below the pivotal $1.8475, suggesting a cautious market stance.

Key resistance levels are identified at $1.8976, $1.9399, and $2.0035, which could cap further advances. Conversely, support is established at $1.7849, with additional levels at $1.7209 and $1.6789, potentially halting declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages such as the 50-Day EMA at $1.8236 and the 200-Day EMA at $1.9240 hint at a nuanced market perspective. The current technical outlook points to a bearish trend below $1.8475, indicating potential challenges ahead.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL registered a slight decline, dipping by 0.18% to trade at $81.99. Positioned just above its pivot point at $81.60, the commodity faces immediate resistance at $82.47, with further barriers at $83.27 and $83.99 potentially capping any upward momentum. Conversely, support levels are marked at $80.84, $79.95, and $79.10, which could provide a foundation against further losses.

The technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79.96, alongside the 200-Day EMA at $77.95, suggest a bullish trend if prices remain above the pivot point.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

UKOIL saw a slight decrease, trading the day at $86.70, marking a 0.17% drop. The commodity currently hovers above the pivot point of $86.25, suggesting a potential for upward movement. Resistance levels are established at $87.13, $87.75, and $88.42, which could limit gains. Support is found at lower thresholds of $85.44, $84.74, and $84.21, offering a buffer against further declines.

Technical indicators, including the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $84.27 and the 200-Day EMA at $82.46, reinforce a bullish outlook if UK Oil maintains its stance above the pivot point. Nevertheless, a dip below $86.25 could precipitate a stronger selling trend, indicating a delicate balance in market sentiment.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.