Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Houthi Strike on Ras Tanura Lifts Oil, Can WTI Break $103.94?

Houthi Strike on Saudi Arabia’s Biggest Refinery Revives Oil Supply Fears

Crude climbed on Wednesday as a claimed missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery undercut the hopes raised by Middle East diplomacy. Natural gas stays weighed down by a warm November outlook.

Brent: Ras Tanura Comes Into the Line of Fire

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s biggest, with a ballistic missile, Reuters reported. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the strike on the 550,000-barrel-a-day facility. Brent rose 1.3% to $115.36 early Wednesday, recovering part of the nearly $2 it lost on Tuesday, when the diplomacy in Tehran eased supply worries.

The claim came as Iran’s Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei after talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. State media said Khamenei stressed maintaining Iran’s conditions for ending the war, a reminder that the talks have not closed the gap yet.

SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop said there is “a significant risk premium in crude oil prices,” meaning an extra amount traders pay for the chance of a US or Israeli strike on Iran in the coming weeks. Gelber & Associates said continued Houthi attacks and the expanding military presence in the Gulf are keeping supply risks in place.

WTI: Industry Data Shows Another Draw

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group whose figures come a day before the government’s, estimated that US crude stocks fell about 2.03mn barrels in the week to October 23. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a small build of about 15,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 380,000 barrels, but EIA data last week showed them about 9% below the five-year average. The official EIA figures are due Wednesday, the same day as the Fed’s decision.

Natural Gas: Contract Rolls With a Warm Outlook

The November gas contract expires on Wednesday, so December becomes the benchmark. December futures were near $3.02 per mmBtu on Tuesday, well above November’s $2.662, Reuters reported. Henry Hub spot gas, the price for gas delivered the next day, fell to $2.52, its lowest since November 2024.

The weather is still the main problem for buyers. Meteorologists expect mostly milder-than-normal weather through November 11, LSEG said, which keeps heating demand low. Exports are offering some support, with LNG feedgas, the gas sent to export terminals to be cooled into liquid for shipping, topping 20 Bcf/d this month, NGI reported. Daily output has recovered to about 113.5 Bcf/d, according to LSEG, and NGI expects Thursday’s EIA storage report to show a 68 Bcf injection.

WTI Technical Analysis: Oil Holds $99.61 Breakout as $103.94 Comes Into Focus

WTI is trading near $101.33 on the daily chart. Oil broke above the $99.61 zone, peaked at $103.94, and the pullback has held that zone so far. Prices are still above a rising trendline, a line connecting higher lows, that has guided them higher since July.

Support, where buyers tend to step in, is $99.61, then $95.33. Resistance, where sellers tend to step in, is $103.94, then $107.38.

RSI, which measures the strength of recent buying and selling, is about 64 and just above its signal line, a slower average of RSI, so momentum is positive but not overbought. I keep a bullish lean while WTI holds $99.61. A close above $103.94 would open $107.38, while a drop below $99.61 would point to $95.33.

Brent Technical Analysis: Oil Holds $109.17 as $112.20 Caps the Range

January Brent futures are trading near $111.00 on the 4-hour chart. Since touching $112.20 on October 24, Brent has moved sideways between $109.17 and $112.20. The channel has held since late September.

The first resistance is $112.20, then $114.37. On the downside, $109.17 is the first support, followed by $106.02.

RSI is near 60, which is positive but not stretched. Brent keeps a slight bullish lean while it holds $109.17. A close above $112.20 would open $114.37, while a drop below $109.17 would point to $106.02.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: December NG Holds $3.00 as $3.12 Comes Into Focus

Natural gas is trading near $3.06/MMBtu on the daily chart, which now tracks the December contract. That is why prices look higher than the November levels earlier this week, not a sudden rally. December bounced from $2.80 on Monday and is back above $3.00. A long falling trendline, a line connecting lower highs, has capped rallies since February, including this month’s $3.64 peak.

The first resistance is $3.12, then $3.22. Both are Fibonacci levels, which measure how much of the drop has been recovered. Support sits at $3.00, then $2.80.

RSI has climbed to about 40 from near oversold, so selling is easing. In my view, gas keeps a slight bearish lean below $3.12. A close above it would open $3.22, while a drop below $3.00 would point to $2.80.