Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Iran Talks Weigh, Can WTI Hold $95.16?

Oil and Natural Gas News: Iran Talks Weigh on Crude as Gas Output Falls

Oil slipped early Wednesday even after an unexpected draw in US crude stocks. Traders were still weighing Iran diplomacy, leaving the official US inventory report as the next supply test. For natural gas, lower production offers support, but mild weather and weaker export flows limit demand.

WTI: Inventory Draw Awaits EIA Confirmation

US crude stocks fell by 5.27mn barrels in the week ended October 30, according to American Petroleum Institute figures cited by Reuters. Analysts had expected an increase. The API estimate is an industry reading; Wednesday’s Energy Information Administration report provides the government’s figures. A confirmed draw would point to a tighter weekly crude balance, although it would not by itself establish a lasting shortage.

Brent: Iran Talks Leave Supply Outlook Unsettled

Qatar has stepped up mediation, but a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Washington and Tehran remained far from an agreement. Diplomatic efforts have weighed on crude, yet talks alone do not confirm that disrupted supplies will return. That uncertainty keeps the outcome of the Iran talks central to Brent’s outlook.

Seven OPEC+ producers agreed on November 1 to keep December’s required production at September 2026 levels. These are output targets, rather than a guarantee of how much oil reaches the market. With no new increase in those targets, actual production and exports remain the supply figures to watch.

Natural Gas: Lower Output Meets Mild Weather

LSEG data cited by Reuters on Tuesday put average Lower 48 production, covering the contiguous US states, at 110bn cubic feet per day so far in November, down from October’s 113.4bn. That is an early-month average, so it could change as more daily readings come in. Forecasts for mostly milder-than-normal weather through November 18 suggest heating demand will remain below usual seasonal levels.

Gas flows to nine major US LNG export plants averaged 17.7bn cubic feet per day early this month, down from 18.4bn in October. LNG is gas cooled into liquid for shipping; lower flows to these plants reduce demand for US gas. Analysts expected storage for the week ended October 30 to stand 1.4% above its five-year seasonal average ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. That is a forecast, rather than a released storage figure. Lower output therefore needs to persist to offset mild weather and weaker export demand.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Descending Trendline Keeps $2.927 in Focus

December natural gas futures trade near $2.863/MMBtu, or per million British thermal units, on the two-hour NYMEX chart. Repeated failures below the descending trendline, a line connecting lower highs, and the red moving average, which tracks the average price over time, keep sellers in control. The latest bounce remains modest.

Resistance, where sellers may return, is $2.927, then $3.001. Support, where buyers may step in, is $2.802 at the lower edge of the shaded demand zone, followed by $2.711. RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of buying and selling strength, remains below 50. I lean bearish below $2.927. A two-hour close below $2.802 would strengthen that view; a sustained recovery above $2.927 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: $95.16 Support Faces Pressure After Channel Breakdown

December WTI futures trade near $95.25 on the four-hour NYMEX chart. Price has broken below its rising channel, two parallel lines that previously guided prices higher, and remains below the red moving average. Repeated tests of $95.16 support, close to the blue moving average, leave little room for another failed bounce.

A four-hour close below $95.16 would open the way for $92.70, followed by $90.28. Resistance is $97.48, the first marked Fibonacci recovery level, then $98.91. Fibonacci levels measure how much of an earlier price move has been retraced. RSI remains below 40, showing weak momentum. My bias stays bearish below $97.48; a support break would confirm further downside risk. A sustained recovery above $97.48 would invalidate that immediate view.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: $103.29 Breakdown Exposes $101.05

January Brent futures trade near $102.95 on the two-hour ICEEUR chart. Price has broken below its rising channel and both visible moving averages. Selling resumed after the recent rebound failed, leaving the former $103.29 support level as immediate resistance.

Holding below $103.29 leaves $101.05 exposed, with $99.55 next if that support breaks. Above $103.29, the next resistance is $105.89. RSI sits near the oversold threshold, so a brief rebound remains possible; a low RSI does not guarantee a reversal. I remain bearish below $103.29, and a two-hour close below $101.05 would confirm further weakness. A sustained recovery above $105.89 would invalidate the broader bearish view.