Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output Hike Clashes With Geopolitical Risk

Market Overview

WTI crude extended its decline for a third consecutive session, weighed down by rising global supply despite a sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a 3.9-million barrel draw last week, well above the forecasted one-million barrel decline.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to ramp up production, adding 411,000 barrels per day since May, with plans to raise output by 548,000 bpd in August. Natural gas and oil markets remain rangebound as geopolitical tensions support demand for energy security, while rising supply tempers upward pressure.

Traders are closely monitoring supply-demand imbalances amid continued regional instability and shifting global risk sentiment.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas continues to trade within its ascending channel on the 2-hour chart, holding above both the 50-EMA at $3.484 and 200-EMA at $3.505. The price is attempting to clear resistance at $3.595, which has capped gains twice in recent sessions.

A successful breakout here would open the path toward $3.678 and potentially $3.752. If sellers return, immediate support lies at $3.502—where the EMA cluster and channel support converge.

A break below this zone could shift momentum and expose $3.402. For now, structure remains bullish with upward pressure intact, provided the price stays above $3.50.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil is struggling below a key resistance zone at $67.08, where the 200-period EMA and descending trendline intersect. Price action remains capped by the 50-EMA at $66.92, reinforcing short-term bearish pressure.

Sellers have repeatedly defended this confluence area, keeping momentum constrained below the $67 level. On the downside, support sits at $66.20, with lower zones near $65.50 and $64.61 in focus if weakness persists.

For any meaningful shift in structure, the price needs to close decisively above $67.08 to challenge the next resistance at $67.81 and $68.74.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is consolidating just below $68.93, the neckline of a former support zone now acting as resistance. Price remains under pressure after losing the ascending channel, with both the 50-EMA ($68.97) and 200-EMA ($69.01) capping gains.

A clear rejection here opens the door for a pullback toward $67.66 and possibly $66.88. On the upside, reclaiming $68.93 would be the first sign of renewed strength, but bulls need a break above $70.31 to regain broader control.