Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Eyes $115 as Truce Rumors Spark Profit-Taking – What’s Next for Oil?

Market Overview

WTI crude is currently trading in a tight range around $110.90- $111.50 on April 6th, taking a breather after a pretty wild ride over the past month that saw prices more than double (17% to be exact). The price has pulled back a bit from its intraday highs of around $115.50, and to be honest its no surprise, given that traders are getting in some profit-taking after early signs that a potential 45-day US-Iran truce might be on the cards – not that anything is officially confirmed just yet.

The thing is though, geopolitics is still firmly in the driving seat when it comes to oil prices. And as long as there are concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz (that carries about 20% of the world’s oil), you can bet that fears about shortages will keep on simmering. And with President Trump weighing in with renewed warnings of a possible escalation, it’s little wonder that a risk premium is still in effect – meanwhile the OPEC+ crew are trying to counteract this by pumping out more crude to keep the taps from getting too tight.

US gasoline prices have hit around $4.11 per gallon, and that’s just highlighting how crude levels are feeding through to the rest of the economy, causing some pretty nasty inflationary effects. Analysts reckon that if supply disruptions carry on for any length of time, we could see prices heading even higher. On the flip side, if a ceasefire gets put in place we could see a pretty rapid price drop.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Pressure is Still Building & $2.90 is a Key Level

Natural Gas (NG)  ($2.79) is still looking pretty bearish, trading below that descending trendline and struggling to get back above that 50-SMA. The recent price action shows us repeated rejection near $3.00, which just confirms how strong that overhead resistance is. The market is now testing that horizontal support zone near $2.77-$2.78 – if it can’t hold here then we could see a real bearish move down towards $2.71 and $2.65.

On the other hand if we can manage to get above $2.90 that would completely invalidate the bearish structure and momentum would start to shift in the opposite direction and we’d be looking at a possible move up towards $3.05.

Trade idea: If we can break below $2.77 I think we’re looking at a possible sell down to $2.71 with a stop-loss above $2.90.

WTI Oil Price Forecast: Bulls Got their Sights Set on $115 as Momentum Continues to Build

USOIL($111.04) heads into the new week still bumping up against the $111.00 resistance level (0.236 Fib), after a pretty strong rally that came up from the $100 zone. Things are still looking pretty good for the bulls, with that rising trendline still intact and price holding above both the short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating that the momentum is still on our side.

If we can get a clean break above $111.00 do expect to see the price go up towards $115.40, which just so happens to be a prior swing high and a level that has given us resistance before.

If things start to head the other way, immediate support can be found at $108.25, then $106.00 and $103.80. If we see a break below $108.00 things could get a little ugly, and we might be looking at a more significant retreat all the way back down toward the trendline near $100.50. RSI is stuck at 60, which suggests we’ve got some controlled momentum on our side without getting too overbought.

Trade idea: If we can get above $111.00, I think we’ve got a good chance to get up to $115.40 with a stop-loss below $108.20.

Brent Oil Price Forecast: Range Break – This Could be the Key to the Next Leg Higher

UKOIL ($109.40) is still stuck in that big broad consolidation range between $103.60 and $112.00, but at least for now things are still looking okay as price is holding above that ascending trendline. The structure does show us some higher lows, which suggests there’s some underlying demand going on even if we do get rejected near $112.

The short-term moving average is acting like a bit of a safety net, while that long-term moving average that’s a bit lower down is still reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. If we can get a clean break above $112.00 that would confirm our bullish outlook and we’d be looking at a possible push up towards $116.00 and maybe even $119.40.

But if we can’t hold above $109.00 then the trendline near $103.60 could be in some real danger of getting hit, and that’s a big support zone that we don’t want to see broken.

Trade idea: If we can get a clean break above $112.00 then I think we’re looking at a possible run up to $116.00 with a stop-loss below $109.00.