US Natural Gas kicks off the Wednesday session with storage well above the five-year average but below last year. A new EIA price outlook and weather forecast point to warmth across much of the central and northern United States next week.
Storage
The latest observed storage reading remains the EIA’s November 5 report for the week ending October 30. Working gas in the Lower 48 stood at 3,801 billion cubic feet after an injection of 77 billion cubic feet. Stocks were 109 billion cubic feet, or 2.8%, below the year-earlier level, but 54 billion cubic feet, or 1.4%, above the 2021–2025 five-year average.
Regional balances are a bit of a mixed picture, though, with the East adding 13 billion cubic feet to 926 billion cubic feet and the Midwest adding 23 billion cubic feet to 1,111 billion cubic feet. South Central saw stocks rise 40 billion cubic feet to 1,208 billion cubic feet, but remained 6.6% below the same week last year and 1.1% below the five-year average.
South Central includes storage near the Gulf Coast supply and LNG export infrastructure, so a regional deficit can matter while the national total is slightly above normal. It does not, by itself, indicate an immediate shortage. Pipeline flows, production, LNG feed gas, and weather demand will also come into the picture.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
The EIA’s November 10 Short-Term Energy Outlook lowered its Henry Hub annual average forecast to $3.37 per million BTU for 2026 and $2.88 for 2027, from $3.48 and $3.16 in its previous forecast. These are projections, not spot prices, so please keep that in mind.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Every new Natural Gas analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Natural Gas forecastsThe EIA’s November forecast expects U.S. LNG exports to increase from 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 to 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while the domestic natural gas share of power generation is projected at 40% this year and 39% next year. These reports were finalized on November 5.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center discussion issued yesterday favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and northern U.S. during November 16–20, with probabilities above 80% in parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. It favors cooler-than-normal conditions across parts of the West and some coastal southern Mid-Atlantic and southeastern areas. This is a probabilistic outlook, not the actual temperature forecast itself.
The Fundamental Picture Is Somewhat Balanced
The next EIA storage report is scheduled for Friday, November 13, and will cover the week ending November 6. It will test whether the injection pace continued after the 77 billion cubic feet build. Wednesday is Veterans Day, so the market will be very thin.
The fundamental picture is somewhat balanced. National stocks are slightly above normal, and forecasts are warm in some regions, but inventories trailed last year, and South Central remains below its seasonal benchmark.
Technical Outlook Seasonally Strong
The technical analysis is very strong, as it looks like natural gas is threatening a breakout and remains more of a buy-the-dip scenario as things stand. It is worth noting that temperatures are starting to fall in places like the Ohio Valley and the Northeast. Although temperatures are still relatively mild, the reality is that gas consumption is starting to be predicted to tick up. I am bullish this time of year; I am just looking for value.