Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

Natural Gas  soared 67 points to 2.428 after a delayed inventory report on Friday and colder winter weather slowly arriving in the Northeast.  Natural-gas futures held onto their gains last week after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of natural gas rose 49 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 6. Analysts polled by Platts were looking for climb of between 49 billion cubic feet and 53 billion cubic feet. Total stocks now stand at 3.978 trillion cubic feet, up 373 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 173 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said. December natural gas was at $2.321 per million British thermal units, up 6.1 cents, or 2.7%. Prices traded around that same level before the supply data.

Inventories of the gas are typically built up during the warmer summer months and then drawn down in the winter as cold temperatures increase demand for the fuel.

Natural gas has fallen to multi-year lows this summer thanks to an abundance of gas flowing from shale and forecasts for a warm winter. Prices bottomed near $2 per million British thermal unit at the end of October, but have mounted a slight recovery since.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

November 13-19th: A strong weather system will track across the Midwest and eastern US today with showers along the cold front and rain and snow behind it. Morning lows will be quite chilly into the core of the colder air with 20s and 30s, including teens over the Rockies. This system will bring stronger demand to the East this weekend after being lighter than normal this week. High pressure and milder temperatures over the western US will give way to another Pacific weather system this weekend into early next week with another round of rain and snow. This will again force the mild ridge back over the eastern US for much of next week with temperatures warming back above normal. Overall nat gas demand will be MODERATE.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)