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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas continued to decline giving up 11 points to trade at 3.648 as US temperatures remain moderate, while traders

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas continued to decline giving up 11 points to trade at 3.648 as US temperatures remain moderate, while traders look ahead of the EIA official inventory report due later today. Weather forecasts are still showing above-normal temperatures through the end of the month, likely warm enough so that consumers won’t use much natural gas for home heating. Long-term forecasts are largely predicting that cold winter weather won’t arrive before January and if that proves true, prices are likely to stay below $4 for week.

Demand is weak enough that producers could put a record amount of natural gas into winter storage for mid-October that is weighing heavily on traders.  Weather forecasts are still showing above-normal temperatures through the end of the month, likely warm enough that consumers won’t use much natural gas for home heating

Record production and tepid demand have been pressuring the market since June. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is likely to report Thursday that producers added around 97 billion cubic feet of gas to stockpiles last week, according to the average forecast of 16 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That surplus is nearly 40% larger than the five-year average for that week of the year and would be the fourth-largest addition for a week in October dating to at least 1994, EIA data shows.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

0.3%

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Business Confidence

6

 

6

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Mfg.  PMI 

50.4

50.3

50.2

 

 

  EUR

 

French Mfg. PMI 

47.3

48.5

48.8

 

 

  EUR

 

French Services PMI   

48.1

48.2

48.4

 

 

  EUR

 

German Mfg. PMI 

51.8

49.5

49.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI

54.8

55.0

55.7

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI

50.7

49.9

50.3

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Oct)  

52.4

52.0

52.4

 

 

  GBP

 

Mortgage Approvals

39.3K

41.5K

41.4K

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY)

3.1%

3.4%

4.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.3%

-0.1%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)

2.7%

2.8%

3.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends

 

-4

-4

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

282K

264K

 

 

Natural Gas(15 minutes)20141023124609

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM)

 

-700M

-472M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY)

 

1,510M

2,020M

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.7%

0.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

3.0%

3.2%

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Sep)

 

470K

504K

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (MoM)

 

-5.8%

18.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

 

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