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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 28, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas  gained 17 points this morning to trade at 3.715 as freezing storms blanket Canada and could push in the US

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 28, 2014 Forecast
Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 28, 2014 Forecast
Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 28, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  gained 17 points this morning to trade at 3.715 as freezing storms blanket Canada and could push in the US northern territories. The decline in Arctic sea ice has doubled the chance of severe winters in the past decade, according to researchers in Japan. Sea-ice melt in the Arctic, Barents and Kara seas since 2004 has made more than twice as likely atmospheric circulations that suck cold Arctic air to Europe and Asia, a group of Japanese researchers led by the University of Tokyo’s Masato Mori said in a study published yesterday in Nature Geoscience.

The IPCC said the rate of global temperature rises since 1998 has been less than half the pace seen since 1951. Scientists say natural variability in the climate can explain some of the slowdown and studies have shown the oceans, too, are absorbing more heat.

The higher frequency of severe winters identified in the Nature Geoscience paper is unlikely to continue because climate warming is expected to outweigh the sea-ice effect toward the end of the 21st century, the researchers said

Midday weather forecasting models showed a burst of cold air expected to arrive in early November will be milder than previously thought, likely leaving more natural-gas-fired heaters idle. The forecasts came in a lot warmer, said Aaron Calder, a senior analyst with energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates.

Futures had traded higher earlier in the day, after the Energy Information Administration reported stockpiles of the fuel rose by slightly less than traders were expecting.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales 

 

0.5%

-1.0%

 

 

Natural Gas(60 minutes)20141027094204

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)

 

0.6%

1.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core Durable Goods

 

0.5%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

Durable Goods Orders

 

0.6%

-18.4%

 

 

  USD

 

S&P/CS HPI Composite

 

5.8%

6.7%

 

 

  USD

 

Consumer Confidence

 

87.0

86.0

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

 

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