Natural Gas News: Bulls Fade at $3.529 Pivot, All Eyes on 50-Day Moving Average at $3.287

Natural Gas Futures Stall Below Resistance as Traders Eye Production, Weather Shifts

U.S. natural gas futures pulled back Wednesday morning after briefly testing the key 50% Fibonacci resistance level at $3.529. The inability to hold above this technical level has put bulls on the defensive, with short-term momentum hanging in the balance.

Traders are now focused on whether the market can regain traction above $3.529, which would open the door to a potential breakout toward the October 2 high of $3.585. A decisive move through that level could trigger a run toward $3.870, but only if backed by volume, fresh buying, and supportive fundamentals.

At 13:27 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.440, down $0.058 or -1.66%.

Is Production Growth Undermining Bullish Sentiment?

Despite recent bullish technical signals, U.S. dry gas production remains near record highs. Tuesday’s output stood at 105.9 Bcf/d, up 3.7% year-over-year, while the EIA’s latest projection raised 2025 production estimates to 107.14 Bcf/d. The number of active gas rigs also edged higher last week to 118, signaling ongoing upstream investment.

This steady production growth is adding pressure to prices, especially in the face of softer domestic demand. Lower 48-state consumption on Tuesday was just 69.0 Bcf/d, down 5.8% year-over-year, according to BNEF. LNG feed gas volumes remain supportive at 15.0 Bcf/d, but even those are down 4.4% from the prior week.

Weather Outlook Adds Conflicting Signals

Weather continues to inject uncertainty. The latest models from NatGasWeather show a brief cool front sweeping the Midwest and Northeast, followed by broad warmth across the South and West. Heating demand will stay limited in the near term, with overall U.S. gas consumption expected to remain light to moderate over the next seven days.

However, Atmospheric G2’s revised forecasts for October 12–21 now show cooler trends for both the East and West coasts, potentially lifting demand later this month. Whether this translates into sustained upside will depend on how quickly colder patterns take hold and how storage trends evolve.

Will Storage and Electricity Demand Provide a Floor?

Bullish traders are pointing to last week’s EIA storage build of just +53 Bcf, well below the +64 Bcf consensus and the +85 Bcf five-year average. Though inventories remain 5.0% above the five-year seasonal norm, slower injections could support prices if weather turns colder. Electricity demand also remains constructive, with output for the week ending September 27 up nearly 6% year-over-year.

Market Forecast: Near-Term Neutral to Bearish Without a Break Above $3.529

Failure to break above $3.529 is drawing fresh selling interest, putting the next downside targets at $3.324 and the 50-day moving average at $3.287. Unless bulls reclaim resistance with strong momentum, the short-term tone favors a mild pullback. A sustained move under the 50-day average would signal a deeper correction is underway.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.