Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Markets Brace for 2026 Surplus While Momentum Weakens

Market Overview

Natural gas and oil markets remain under pressure as forecasts point to a looser global supply–demand balance in 2026. Crude prices slipped after Monday’s 1.3% rebound, with traders weighing oversupply concerns against ongoing geopolitical tensions disrupting traditional trade flows.

Analysts warn that rising production could outpace demand by as much as 2 million barrels per day next year, leaving prices vulnerable.

While some buyers reduce purchases from sanctioned suppliers and others seek new export routes, the broader market remains locked in a tug-of-war between supply overhang risks and expectations that softer monetary policy could bolster demand.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is testing the rising trendline that has supported the market since late October, with price now trading near $4.55 after slipping from the $4.80 resistance. The market briefly broke below the 20-EMA, showing fading short-term momentum, while the 200-EMA continues to slope upward, keeping the broader structure constructive.

Price is also hovering above the $4.46 support level, which aligns with the trendline and has acted as a pivot during recent pullbacks. The RSI sits near mid-range, not signaling strong momentum in either direction.

A firm rebound from $4.46 would keep the uptrend intact and open a path toward $4.70–$4.80. A close below the trendline would expose $4.33 as the next downside level.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading inside a broad contracting structure, with price repeatedly rejecting the upper boundary near $60.80 and finding support around $57.40. The latest move shows oil slipping back under the 20-EMA after failing to hold the $59.00 level, suggesting momentum is still mixed. The 200-EMA remains overhead, acting as a wider pressure zone.

If price stays below $59.00, a drift back toward $57.40 is likely. A firm close above the pattern’s midline would shift the bias toward $59.90, where previous rallies stalled.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude continues to move within a broad descending structure, with price capped by the upper trendline near $65.03 while finding support around $61.30. The latest attempt to recover stalled below $63.00, where both the 20-EMA and 200-EMA are creating a heavy resistance zone. Until price closes above these moving averages, momentum remains limited.

The RSI is holding near mid-range after a sharp rebound, but it hasn’t shown a clear bullish divergence, signaling that buyers are still cautious. If Brent stays under $63.00, a retest of $61.59 or even $61.30 is possible. A clean break above $63.00 would shift bias toward $63.90, where previous swing highs repeatedly turned price away.