Natural Gas News: Cold Weather Forecast to Flip Inventory Report Next Week

Natural Gas Edges Higher as Traders Await Massive Cold Weather Drawdowns

Natural gas futures are edging higher on Thursday as traders digest the latest storage numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The report, released at 15:30 GMT, showed an estimated draw of 242 Bcf from the previous week, slightly more than the estimated draw of 237 Bcf. Not especially a particularly bullish number, but wait until you see next week’s data, which will reflect this week’s cold and the impact of winter storm Fern. And the week after for that matter as the arctic temperatures extend into South Florida.

At 16:19 GMT, March Natural Gas futures are trading $3.789, up $0.057 or +1.53%.

Storage Snapshot: Take a Picture Before the Big Drawdowns Hit

Working gas in storage was 2,823 Bcf as of Friday, January 23, 2026, according to EIA estimates. Stocks were 206 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 143 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,680 Bcf. At 2,823 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Take a snapshot because the next two reports will show massive drawdowns, creating a deficit against the five-year historical range. Why is this significant? Because the U.S. doesn’t want to start the summer cooling season in the red.

Technical Analysis: 200-Day Moving Average Controls Near-Term Direction

March natural gas futures continue to straddle the 200-day moving average at $3.780. Based on the price action this week, this indicator is controlling the near-term direction.

A sustained move under the 200-day MA will be a sign of weakness, which could trigger a break into this week’s low at $3.576, followed by the 50% zone at $3.452 to $3.288. Inside this zone is the 50-day moving average at $3.433.

An upside breakout over the 200-day MA will target this week’s high at $3.997. This is the last resistance before the December 5 main top at $4.326.

Market Sentiment: Neutral Until the Next Cold Shot

Although still in an uptrend, the market is not particularly bullish per se, but after getting burned last week for being excessively short, no one appears to want to call winter over like they did earlier in the month. So let’s just call this neutral with the possibility of a rangebound trade developing inside the two moving averages until the next cold shot appears or warm temperatures make the forecast.

I think you should start paying attention to the deferred summer contracts because if the next two reports are bullish, they could benefit more than the nearby futures contracts.

The Math: Why Next Week’s Report Could Flip the Script

Let’s do the math. Last week’s draw was 242 Bcf, before the extreme cold hit. According to the EIA, stocks were 206 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 143 Bcf above the five-year average, but within the five-year historical range. Next week, I expect the government to report a draw of more than 206 Bcf, so stocks will shift to lower than last year. And I think inventories will fall below the five-year average.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.