Natural Gas News: Cooling Weather Caps Demand Outlook in Latest Futures Analysis

Natural Gas Futures Pull Back as Rally Stalls Below Technical Resistance

U.S. natural gas futures retreated Monday following a failed attempt to break above last week’s highs. The early push to $3.840 was capped just below the 50-day moving average resistance at $3.900, triggering technical selling as prices slipped below a key pivot at $3.733.

At 14:09 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.633, down $0.162 or -4.27%.

Is Bearish Momentum Taking Control of the Chart?

The break below the $3.733 pivot opened the door for further downside, with bears now eyeing support around $3.438. Technically, the inability to clear the 50-day average suggests a ceiling remains in place unless bulls can reclaim that level. A decisive move above $3.900 could shift momentum higher, targeting the $4.062 pivot. But for now, the market appears to be leaning toward lower support levels as traders digest mixed signals.

Weather Outlook Offers a Mixed Demand Picture

National weather trends added to the indecision. While conditions are expected to heat up mid-to-late week across Texas and parts of the South—with highs ranging from the 90s to low 100s—forecast models turned cooler for the 7–15 day range. Active systems tracking through the Midwest and Northeast are expected to keep temperatures in the 60s to 80s for most regions, capping broad-based cooling demand.

From May 12–18, national demand is forecast to start light, then tick up to moderate levels midweek as southern heat intensifies. However, storm activity in the South and Southeast will likely prevent temperatures from climbing enough to trigger strong national-level demand. This back-and-forth weather narrative is keeping futures in a tight range.

Storage and Production Still Anchor Market Sentiment

Fundamentally, production remains relatively muted, offering a modest bullish undercurrent. But this is offset by comfortable storage levels and soft near-term demand. June Nymex gas futures hovered around Friday’s settlement, reflecting indecision as traders weighed stagnant production against cooling-driven demand that has yet to materialize meaningfully.

Blake Owen of Pinebrook Energy Advisors noted that “production levels still stuck in neutral” are keeping bulls hopeful, though the market appears to be in wait-and-see mode with no clear catalyst.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Bias Holds

With resistance at the 50-day moving average holding firm and cooling temperatures expected in key regions, the near-term outlook for natural gas leans bearish. Unless prices reclaim the $3.900 threshold and weather patterns turn decisively hotter, further downside toward $3.438 remains a strong possibility. Traders should watch weather updates closely and monitor technical levels for signs of a potential reversal.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.