Natural Gas News: Futures Coil Near Highs as Weather Forecast Fuels Breakout Watch

Natural Gas Holds Near Highs — Is the Breakout Coming?

Natural gas futures are trading flat to start the week, but don’t mistake the quiet for indecision. Traders are sizing up weekend weather data, and the setup is coiled tight just below a key trigger.

Prices nudged through Friday’s high at $4.871, touching $4.878 intraday before pulling back. That puts the market a whisker away from the November 13 peak at $4.881 — the level that could unlock a run toward $4.953, the long-term 50% retracement. For now, buyers are holding their ground but not forcing the issue.

At 13:27 GMT, January Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.834, down $0.016 or -0.33%.

The Bigger Picture: Three Months of Gains and Counting

This isn’t a one-day story. November delivered a 15% rally — the third straight monthly gain — and the momentum has been building. The fuel? A tight trifecta of cold weather, surging exports, and shrinking storage.

Forecasts show intense cold sweeping the Northeast and Great Lakes from December 3–7, with below-normal temps expected to stick around. That’s real heating demand, not just model speculation. Meanwhile, LNG exports hit a record 10.7 million tons last month — up 40% year-over-year — pulling supply out of the domestic market at a clip that’s hard to ignore.

Storage draws are adding to the squeeze. Firms pulled 11 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 21, marking the second consecutive withdrawal. The cushion is thinning.

What’s Holding This Together

The 200-day moving average at $4.732 is doing the heavy lifting on the downside. As long as that holds, dip-buyers have a floor to work with. A clean break below, though, opens the door to $4.627 — and if that gives way, the 50-day at $4.385 comes into play fast.

On the upside, all eyes are on $4.881. A daily close above that could bring in momentum chasers looking for a push toward $4.953.

Bottom Line

The market wants higher — the fundamentals support it, and the technicals are lined up. But traders aren’t chasing just yet. They’re waiting for confirmation, either from the weather models or from price clearing that November peak. Until then, expect choppy action with an upward lean.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.