Natural Gas News: Futures Hover Below $2.922—Breakout Hinges on Storage Print

Natural Gas Futures Hover Ahead of EIA Storage Print as Bulls Eye Breakout

U.S. natural gas futures are holding steady just below key technical resistance as traders await the latest EIA storage report. October Nymex gas is trading near $2.922, a minor top that, if breached, could accelerate upside momentum toward $3.039, $3.221, and the 50-day moving average at $3.300. Despite heavy supply and easing demand, prices are finding support from expectations of a lighter-than-average storage build.

At 13:24 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $2.891, up $0.005 or +0.17%.

Will the EIA Storage Report Provide the Catalyst for a Breakout?

Traders are closely watching for today’s EIA storage report, with consensus estimates calling for a +27 Bcf injection for the week ended August 22—below the five-year average of +38 Bcf. A similar surprise last week helped prices rally, when the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected +13 Bcf build. Inventories remain 5.8% above the five-year average but are down 3% year-over-year, keeping bullish sentiment afloat despite seasonally weak demand.

Record Production Continues to Weigh on Prices

Production remains a headwind. U.S. lower-48 dry gas output hit 107.7 Bcf/d on Wednesday, up 4.5% from a year ago. Active gas rigs are near a two-year high, with 122 rigs in operation. EIA has also raised its output forecasts for both 2025 and 2026. While LNG export flows rose to 15.5 Bcf/d (+11.7% week-over-week), overall domestic demand is fading. Wednesday’s total U.S. gas demand fell 15.2% year-over-year to 72.4 Bcf/d, as cooler weather is expected to curb late-summer air conditioning loads across much of the U.S.

Can Electricity Demand Offer Price Support?

Electricity usage is one of the few bright spots. The Edison Electric Institute reported U.S. power output rose 7.7% year-over-year last week, a potential signal of firming base demand. However, this support may prove temporary as weather forecasts point to below-normal temperatures from North Carolina to Northern California through early September—limiting gas-for-power consumption.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Bias if EIA Build Disappoints

While production remains a drag and weather-driven demand is fading, traders are laser-focused on inventory builds. A confirmed sub-30 Bcf EIA injection would likely trigger a technical breakout above $2.922, opening the door to test $3.039 and $3.221. Support sits at $2.821, followed by a nine-month low at $2.695. Momentum favors the bulls—provided storage data comes in light.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.