Natural Gas News: Futures Slip Today as Forecasts Favor Warmer Mid-November Weather

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Drift Lower as Traders Look Beyond Immediate Cold Snap

U.S. natural gas futures are trading slightly lower early Monday despite a brief overnight spike above the 200-day moving average. While headlines pointed to record cold across the U.S. East Coast, the move lacked follow-through as market participants remained focused on extended weather forecasts rather than current conditions.

The January contract surged to $4.509 overnight, breaching the 200-day moving average at $4.452 before attracting selling pressure. Traders quickly faded the rally, reflecting skepticism about the staying power of near-term weather support. With weather driving sentiment, the market remains volatile and prone to sharp, short-lived moves.

Why Isn’t the Market Rallying on Cold Weather?

Short-term cold blasts may grab headlines, but futures traders are more concerned with weather trends 10 to 15 days out. While the current system is producing lows in the teens to 30s across the eastern U.S., national demand is expected to ease mid-to-late week as much of the interior warms above seasonal norms. The 8–15 day pattern continues to lean too warm to support a sustained rally, dampening bullish sentiment.

NatGasWeather reported that long-range models continue to suggest a chilly start to December, but until those forecasts firm up, traders are unlikely to price in sustained upside. Even the recent weekend data, which added several heating degree days, wasn’t enough to change the broader view that mid-month weather looks neutral to slightly bearish for demand.

Record LNG Exports Provide Support, But It May Not Be Enough

One bullish underpinning comes from LNG exports, which hit a record high near 18.5 Bcf/day. While this supports a floor under prices, it hasn’t been enough to offset the bearish weather outlook. Traders remain cautious, with most awaiting confirmation of a more robust cold pattern before reestablishing long positions.

Is Technical Support Enough to Prevent a Breakdown?

Technically, the 50-day moving average at $3.948 has emerged as the more critical support level, overtaking the 200-day average in importance. A successful test of this level, combined with colder-than-normal weather later this month, could spark a rally back toward $4.452. However, near-term risk remains skewed to the downside with further weakness possible if the market drops below the pivot at $4.336.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously Bearish Unless Forecasts Shift

With weather trends skewing warm in the 7–15 day window and little technical support above $4.336, the short-term outlook leans bearish. Traders will need to see clearer signs of sustained cold weather before the market can gain traction to the upside. For now, patience and discipline remain critical.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.