Natural Gas News: Market Holds Above 200-Day MA With Weather and Inventory in Focus

Natural Gas Futures Test 200-Day Moving Average Into Expiry

Natural gas futures are flat Friday, trading just above the 200-day moving average ahead of December options expiry Monday and final settlement Tuesday. The market is coiling at a key technical level, and how it responds to the 200-day will set the tone heading into next week.

Storage Draw Tops Expectations, but Supply Still Outweighs Demand

The EIA reported a 14 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 14, stronger than the expected 12 Bcf and well below the five-year average build of 12 Bcf. Storage stands 3.8% above the five-year norm and 0.6% below year-ago levels.

Dry gas production remains high at 110.1 Bcf per day, up 7.6% year-over-year. LNG feedgas flows fell 2.2% on the week to 17.4 Bcf per day. Electricity output rose 5.33% year-over-year, adding some demand support but not enough to shift the overall supply-heavy balance.

Weather Remains a Wildcard with Cold Risk Building

Models shifted colder for November 28–30, but near-term demand remains weak. NatGasWeather projects very light demand through November 26, with most of the country running well above seasonal norms. A colder system is expected in the Rockies and Northern Plains mid-next week, but early December outlooks remain inconsistent and subject to change. Traders are staying flexible.

Technical View: Market Sitting on the 200-Day, Trend Driven by the 50-Day

The market is sitting just above the 200-day moving average. If it holds, buyers may look to push toward the two-week high at 4.688, with a possible run at the long-term high at 4.717. If the 200-day fails as support, that signals the return of sellers, with downside targets at 4.424 and the major support zone between 4.220 and 4.142.

The broader trend remains bullish as long as the market holds above the 50-day moving average. That level — currently at 4.062 — continues to define the larger structure. As long as it holds, this is still a buy-the-dip market.

Market Forecast: Watch the 200-Day for Short-Term Direction, 50-Day Still Controls the Trend

If the market holds above the 200-day moving average, there’s room for a move toward 4.688 and 4.717. If it fails, look for downside to extend toward 4.424 and into 4.220–4.142. The main trend remains intact above the 50-day moving average.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.