Natural Gas News: Prices Stalled at 50-Day MA — Will Weather Break the Deadlock?

Natural Gas Futures Tread Water as Traders Watch 50-Day MA and Weather-Driven Demand

Natural gas futures are seeing muted action at mid-session Wednesday, as the tug-of-war between bulls and bears plays out near a critical technical level.

Prices initially broke above the 50-day moving average (MA) at $3.130, hitting resistance at $3.168, just shy of key levels at $3.198 and $3.238. But momentum faded, and futures slipped back below the 50-day MA, leaving the market directionless for now.

With both supportive demand signals and bearish supply trends in play, trader reaction to the 50-day MA will be pivotal in setting the tone into the close.

At 16:42 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.079, down $0.024 or -0.77%.

Can Production Softness Offset Record-High Supply?

While U.S. natural gas production remains near record highs at 106.0 Bcf/d (+4.8% y/y), recent output has softened slightly, offering some near-term support for prices. LNG exports also remain firm at 15.2 Bcf/d (+4.0% w/w), and electricity output continues to climb, with the Edison Electric Institute reporting a +1.03% y/y increase in power generation for the week ending September 6.

These demand-side supports are battling against bearish undertones from the EIA’s recent storage build. Last week’s +71 Bcf injection exceeded consensus (+68 Bcf) and the five-year average (+56 Bcf), pushing inventories 6.0% above seasonal norms.

How Is Heat Driving Power Burns and Spot Prices?

Weather remains a central driver, with hotter-than-normal conditions forecast through September 30. Atmospheric G2 and NatGasWeather both highlight persistent heat across much of the U.S., supporting power burns as cooling demand ramps up.

Widespread 80s and 90s, with triple-digit heat in the Southwest, are keeping cash prices elevated and reinforcing the recent rally. However, national demand is expected to remain moderate overall through September 21, which may cap further upside unless forecasts trend hotter.

Will Technical Resistance Hold or Break?

The near-term technical picture is tight. A sustained move above the 50-day MA would open the door to a breakout toward $3.238. But failure to hold above $3.130 could invite sellers to push the market toward support between $2.947 and $2.887—just above this week’s spike low of $2.869.

Until there’s conviction above $3.198, price action may stay range-bound, with short-term trades likely dictated by the interplay between weather updates and technical levels.

Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish if $3.130 Holds

With production slipping, power burns strong, and supportive weather in play, the market leans cautiously bullish in the short term—provided prices hold above the 50-day MA. A confirmed break above $3.198 would strengthen this outlook. Failure to reclaim that level risks inviting fresh selling pressure into the $2.89–$2.95 range.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.