Natural Gas News: Storage Outlook, Weather Models Drive Bearish Market Forecast

Are Natural Gas Bears Ready to Break $2.885 Support

U.S. natural gas futures traded lower at mid-session as sellers tested the longer-term support at $2.885, a level that has so far contained downside moves. A decisive break below would open the door toward $2.498, with no major technical support in between. The trend remains down, but a move through $3.148 would flip the main trend to bullish.

At 16:36 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $2.961, down $0.029 or -0.97%.

Is Weather Driving Short-Term Price Action

Weekend forecast updates removed roughly 10 cooling degree days from the 10–15 day outlook for the eastern U.S., triggering a weaker Sunday night open. While prices quickly recovered to test $3 early Monday, traders remain cautious given that most summer rallies have been sold into. Strong high pressure will dominate much of the U.S. through Aug. 17, pushing highs into the upper 80s–100s, but cooler exceptions in the far north are expected to cap overall demand growth.

How Are Physical Markets Responding

Physical gas prices were mixed last week. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Average climbed 14.5 cents to $2.665, with notable gains at Eastern Gas South (+32.0 cents to $2.505) and Transco Zone 6 non-NY (+38.5 cents to $2.605). The Waha hub saw the largest jump, adding 51.5 cents, though it still averaged just 80.5 cents, underscoring persistent regional bottlenecks.

Can Storage and Hurricane Season Support Bulls

Traders see no immediate supply threats despite active hurricane season headlines, as healthy end-of-season storage projections continue to weigh on sentiment. Without a disruptive weather event or significant heat-driven demand spike, storage trends are likely to keep rallies in check.

Market Forecast

Near term, the $2.885 support remains pivotal. Cooler trends in the eastern U.S. and strong storage outlooks maintain pressure, favoring bears unless fresh weather models add substantial heat. A daily close above $3.148 would be the first technical signal of a possible trend reversal, but until then, rallies are likely to be met with renewed selling.

The short-term bias remains bearish, with traders watching weather models closely for any shift that could flush out weak shorts and trigger a sharp but likely temporary rebound.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.