U.S. equities closed higher last week, extending record gains despite a full government shutdown that began September 30. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 6,716, the Nasdaq gained 1.3% to 22,781, and the Dow Jones advanced 1.1% to 46,758. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 14.2%, while the Nasdaq leads with an 18.0% gain.
The shutdown has frozen key economic data, including the September jobs report, leaving markets to trade on Fed commentary, corporate earnings, and private indicators. Investors are largely treating the standoff as a temporary event, with AI-driven growth and resilient consumer spending still anchoring sentiment.
The main focus this week is the Fed’s September meeting minutes and a heavy speaker slate that could offer guidance on the path of rate cuts. With the labor market softening and official data offline, policymakers may rely on private readings such as ADP payrolls to gauge employment trends.
Traders are also watching the early start to Q3 earnings season, with Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, and Levi Strauss reporting later in the week. Seasonality remains a tailwind—Q4 has historically been the S&P 500’s strongest quarter.
Monday, Oct 6
Before the Open: No reports scheduled
Economic Releases: No releases scheduled
After the Close: Constellation Brands (STZ), est. $3.42
Tuesday, Oct 7
Before the Open: McCormick (MKC), est. $0.82
Economic Releases: 13:30 GMT – Trade Balance, forecast -61.2B (prior -78.3B)
18:00 GMT – Consumer Credit m/m, forecast +14.9B (prior +16.0B)
After the Close: Penguin Solutions (PENG), est. $0.37
Wednesday, Oct 8
Before the Open: No reports scheduled
Economic Releases: 17:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes
After the Close: AZZ (AZZ), est. $1.58
Thursday, Oct 9
Before the Open: Delta Air Lines (DAL), est. $1.53
PepsiCo (PEP), est. $2.26
Helen of Troy (HELE), est. $0.53
Neogen (NEOG), est. -$0.07
Economic Releases: 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 225K (prior 218K)
14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior +53B
After the Close: Apogee Enterprises (APOG), est. $0.84
Applied Digital (APLD), est. -$0.15
Levi Strauss (LEVI), est. $0.31
Friday, Oct 10
Before the Open: No reports scheduled
Economic Releases: 12:30 GMT – Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast +52K (prior +22K)
12:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.3% (prior 4.3%)
14:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 54.6 (prior 55.1)
18:00 GMT – Federal Budget Balance, forecast -344.8B
After the Close: No reports scheduled
Monday features FOMC Member Schmid (16:00 GMT). Multiple speakers follow Tuesday–Friday, including Bostic, Bowman, Kashkari, Barr, Daly, Musalem, and Chair Powell (Thursday, 11:30 GMT). Markets will parse their comments for confirmation of another rate cut at the October 29 meeting. The September FOMC minutes on Wednesday remain the key event for clues on the pace of policy easing.
Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Dow Jones: 46,758.29 (+1.1%), support at 43,340.68 and 43,328.99 (52-week SMA), resistance at 47,049.64.
Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)
Nasdaq: 22,780.51 (+1.3%), support at 20,905.99 and 19,520.12 (52-week SMA), resistance at 22,925.43.
Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)
S&P 500: 6,715.79 (+1.1%), support at 6,360.58, 6,343.86, 6,212.69 then 6,009.67 (52-week SMA), resistance at 6,750.87.
All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.
Markets enter the week resilient, supported by AI investment strength and consumer spending momentum. The government shutdown may delay official data, but Fed signals and early Q3 earnings will keep risk appetite steady.
The release of the Fed’s September minutes will be key. Traders will look for how divided the committee was on last month’s rate cut and whether members discussed the risks of a prolonged data blackout. Any hint of further easing could reinforce the bullish tone already reflected in equities.
Traders expect the Fed to maintain a cautious easing path while watching labor conditions closely. If the shutdown persists, volatility could rise temporarily, but historical patterns show limited lasting impact.
Overall tone stays constructive—pullbacks tied to Washington uncertainty are likely viewed as entry points within an ongoing bull trend driven by profits and lower rates.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.