XRP News Today: Can Ripple’s Bank License and ETF Launch Ignite a Rally?

Ripple Banking License: What Does It Mean for XRP

Speculation about the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) granting Ripple a US-chartered bank license intensified. The public comment period closed on August 4, 2025. Approval, however, is not assured. A banking license is expected to boost XRP‘s profile, since approval would give Ripple a footing in the US financial system.

How a Banking License Could Drive XRP Demand

A banking license could boost demand for XRP in several ways, including:

• Integration into traditional banking services such as cross-border payments, remittances, and settlements would drive institutional demand for XRP as a bridge currency.
• Links to traditional banking infrastructure, payment networks, and correspondent banking relationships.

Crucially, a banking license may legitimize the token, potentially increasing institutional interest in holding it as a treasury reserve asset.

While a license could enable XRP integration into banking operations, Ripple has not confirmed such plans. Uncertainty about Ripple’s plans for XRP integration has limited enthusiasm about the potential impact of a banking license on the token’s price.

Timing: A Potentially Pivotal October

Notably, a banking license could come at a pivotal time for XRP as the launch of XRP-spot ETFs looms.

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan described October as a potential ‘perfect storm’ for XRP, stating:

“All these spot ETFs, including XRP spot ETFs, being delayed until late October. Then you have Ripple’s application for a national bank charter that was filed on 2nd July 2025, which, according to the OCC manual, should generally be decided within 120 days, which means by the end of October. A lot could happen at once in October.”

Government Shutdown and ETF Launch Timeline

The timing of an XRP-spot ETF launch hinges on the duration of the US government shutdown. Kalshi estimates a 21-day shutdown, with prediction markets showing 63% odds of exceeding 15 days and 52% for lasting more than 20 days.

Although a 21-day shutdown could delay the launch, anticipation of strong institutional demand may still support prices.

Notably, the launch of XRP-spot ETFs could happen soon after a US government reopening. The Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based Trust shares mean the SEC only needs to approve the S-1s to allow ETF issuers to list and begin trading.

On Monday, October 6, Capitol Hill will be in the spotlight as traders monitor efforts to end the shutdown. A bipartisan stopgap vote could fuel speculation of an imminent XRP-spot ETF launch, lifting sentiment.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Break $3 Resistance?

XRP rose 0.02% on Sunday, October 5, partially reversing the previous day’s 2.33% loss to close at $2.9702. The token underperformed the broader market (0.65%) but remained within range of the psychological $3 level.

Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support: $2.8, $2.5.
• Resistance: $3, $3.1, $3.3, $3.66 (all-time high).

In the coming sessions, several key catalysts could determine near-term price trends:

• XRP ETF demand, crypto-spot ETF-related headlines (delays or launches), and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies have an interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related developments may dictate near-term price trends.

Catalysts & Scenarios

The combination of ETF flows, legislative developments, and demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset could determine whether XRP tests key support levels or breaks above resistance.

Bearish Scenario

• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs record outflows, and BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US government shutdown delays XRP-spot ETF launches.
• Lawmakers block progress on crypto-friendly regulations such as the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains its market share in global remittances, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could drag XRP toward $2.8. If breached, $2.5 would be the next key support level.

Bullish Scenario

• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR register strong demand.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves S-1s for XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies target XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill advances in the Senate.
• SWIFT loses market share in the global remittance business to Ripple.

These bullish events could drive XRP above $3, bringing $3.1 into play. A sustained move through $3.1 may open the door to testing resistance at $3.3.

The Big Question: Will the US Government Shutdown End Today?

Capitol Hill remains the focal point for crypto markets, with an extended shutdown expected to delay the launch of crypto-spot ETFs. Speculation about SEC approvals could boost demand for XRP should the Senate pass a stopgap funding bill.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.