Natural Gas News: Traders Eye $3.733 Pivot as Weekly U.S. Storage Report Looms

Natural Gas Futures Test Key Resistance Ahead of Storage Print

U.S. natural gas futures are inching higher Thursday, with the June Nymex contract pressing against the $3.733 pivot level as traders brace for the latest storage data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The technical picture remains pivotal here, as market direction could be defined by this threshold. A move above this level could trigger a short-covering rally, while a failure would likely revive selling pressure.

At 13:00 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.661, up $0.04 or +1.10%.

Will the EIA Print Surprise to the Upside?

Traders are closely watching today’s storage report for the week ending May 2, expected at 14:30 GMT. Market participants are bracing for a possible triple-digit injection that would far exceed the five-year average build of 79 Bcf for this time of year. Any upside surprise could reinforce the idea that mild spring temperatures are capping demand while production remains relatively firm. Last week’s report showed a 107 Bcf build, putting total working gas in storage at 2,041 Bcf—just 5 Bcf above the five-year average and 435 Bcf below year-ago levels.

Weather Keeps Demand Muted for Now

Weather forecasts from NatGasWeather for May 7–13 point to mild temperatures across most of the U.S., limiting short-term demand. A series of weather systems bringing showers and storms is keeping highs in the 60s to 80s for most regions, with hotter pockets (90s-100s) limited to the Southwest and California. With light to very light national demand expected over the next week, this aligns with analyst expectations for further injections into storage.

Technical Levels Offer Clear Trade Triggers

The $3.733 level is a key inflection point in the short term. A sustained breakout above it could push prices toward the 50-day moving average at $3.90. Breaching that level would shift the intermediate trend bullish, opening the door to the $4.062 pivot. On the flip side, a rejection at $3.733 could see prices slide toward the $3.391 support zone. If that breaks, the 200-day moving average near $3.122 becomes the next line of defense for bulls.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously Bearish

Given expectations for another large storage injection and limited near-term weather-driven demand, the near-term outlook leans bearish unless bulls can force a close above $3.733. Traders should monitor the EIA print closely for confirmation. A softer injection might provide temporary support, but barring a surprise, the setup currently favors a retest of lower technical support levels.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.