Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Rise

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has been somewhat noisy in the early part of trading on Wednesday, but really, at this point in time, I do think we’re starting to get a little overextended. The 200-day EMA above is an indicator that a lot of people will be watching as a potential ceiling, including myself, as this time of year is likely to be negative going forward, considering that the supply is abundant in the United States, as is almost always the case.

But at the same time, there aren’t a lot of people out there who will also look at the fact that the United States isn’t exactly hot at the moment. The next couple of days are, but longer term, there won’t be the kind of demand necessary to knock down that supply. So, I’m just looking for signs of exhaustion to start selling into.

I’ll be the first to admit that the natural gas market has rallied more than I thought it would, but I think really all that does is give us more room to start shorting. All things being equal, I do think that we revisit the $2.60 level, possibly lower than that, but I think ultimately this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility.

But there is a lot of seasonality that you just cannot ignore here. I’m looking for a long wick and then a pullback to start selling into. This is a market that I am going to have to be patient with, but will certainly be a seller of when I can be.

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