Natural Gas Price Forecast: $3.46 Resistance Caps Rally

Rebound from Key Support

Natural gas bounced off support near the 20-day average on Monday, triggering a one-day bullish reversal from a low of $3.26. Buyers powered through to a high of $3.47, another test of the 200-day moving average at $3.46. Trading holds in the top third of the day’s range as of this writing, suggesting a likely close above Friday’s $3.40 high, confirming breakout momentum and rising demand. This swift recovery from support shows buyers stepping in with conviction.

Higher Swing Low Confirmed

The recent $2.89 swing low (C) successfully tested the lower rising trend channel line, forming a higher swing low and setting up a potential new upswing. The 20-day average proved its strength as dynamic support today, with the rapid recovery from $3.26 showing clear buyer commitment. This level will serve as a critical anchor if resistance begins to crack, especially given its alignment with the channel’s structure.

Resistance Zone in Focus

The $3.46-$3.59 zone, anchored by the 200-day average and early-October’s $3.59 swing high, includes last week’s $3.57 peak, a $3.55 high from three weeks ago, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.55. Breaking this range is essential for higher targets, with $3.59 acting as the key breakout trigger. The market’s repeated tests highlight its significance.

Upside Targets and Patterns

A rising ABCD pattern targets $3.71, matching the prior AB leg’s advance. A $3.59 breakout would exceed the 61.8% retracement, easing the path to $3.71 and potentially the 78.6% retracement. A close above $3.40 today locks in the bullish reversal, putting $3.59 squarely in play and signaling stronger demand.

Outlook and Key Levels

The $3.40 close is decisive—above it confirms strength and eyes $3.59, below it risks a retest of $3.26. The $3.46-$3.59 zone remains the battleground; a decisive break fuels $3.71 and a path toward $4.15 on a June high reclaim. Today’s action leans bullish—watch $3.59 for confirmation of the next leg higher. The 20-day average at $3.27 will be the first line of defense on any pullback.

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