Natural Gas Price Forecast: $3.47 Tests 78.6% Fib – 200-Day Breakdown Confirmed

Monday’s Sharp Decline and Bounce

Sellers were in control of natural gas for much of Monday’s session, as a new retracement low of $3.47 was reached before an intraday bounce. Support was seen following the completion of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.48. That retracement level is also in the area prior resistance around a September swing high near $3.44. Together, the $3.47 to $3.44 suggests an area of potential support that may be sustained.

200-Day Breakdown Clarified

However, Monday’s decline tested resistance at the 200-day average with the day’s high of $3.78. The area around that average has been tested previously as support the prior five days. Monday’s price action provides a clearer sign of a breakdown of the 200-day line. But it is not only the 200-day line that is of interest. A long-term uptrend line was broken as well as the 200-day average recently converged with the trendline.

Further, today’s bearish continuation signal may confirm if Monday’s session ends below the prior trend low of $3.60 from Friday. Despite the potential for support, the price range remains suspect until there is further evidence that the decline has ended and buyers are stepping back in. There is little sign of that so far.

Deeper Retracement Targets

If sellers maintain downside pressure leading to a decisive drop through the $3.44 price area, it could lead to a deeper retracement to lower potential support zones. The lower price zone to watch for support looks to be around $3.28 to $3.23, consisting of the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of an internal upswing and a 78.6% retracement of the full advance from the August low, respectively. A deeper retracement would put natural gas closer to the lower rising trendline that connects to the August swing low, along with an earlier downtrend beginning from the March 2025 peak.

Potential Reversal Signals

Natural gas has been falling for most of 11 days and should be closer to finding sustained support. Moreover, since the decline has been relatively sharp, there is the potential for a sharp bullish reversal in reaction. If that comes before new retracement lows, a decisive advance above Monday’s high of $3.78 would provide a slightly bullish indication. That would need to be followed by a reclaim of the 10-day average, now at $3.86 and falling, and Thursday’s high of $3.93.

Outlook

Natural gas has confirmed the 200-day average and trendline breakdown with continued selling pressure, placing the $3.44–$3.47 confluence under immediate threat. Hold there to allow reversal potential; failure opens acceleration toward $3.23–$3.28 and the lower trendline, while only a push and hold above $3.78–$3.93 would begin to shift short-term momentum back to buyers.

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