Natural Gas Price Forecast: $4.42 Rejection Signals Four-Day Top – Inside Day Looms

Friday’s Sharp Reversal

Natural gas attempted to extend its rally early Friday, printing a session high of $4.42 before sellers overwhelmed buyers. The decline carved out a $4.27 low, marking a clear down day with price still trading near lows at the time of writing—highlighting firm resistance control after the second test of the upper zone.

Core Resistance Cluster

For the second consecutive session, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.41 has capped upside, just shy of the 161.8% projected target of the rising ABCD pattern at $4.45. This creates a defined $4.41–$4.45 resistance band. The extended top channel line runs straight through the heart of the current four-day consolidation range as well, adding another indicator showing of overhead supply.

Four-Day Top Formation

The intraday reversal today strongly favors an inside day close heading into next week, fully contained within a developing four-day topping pattern. A drop below Friday’s $4.27 low would flash immediate weakness, but a bearish reversal only confirms on a decisive break beneath the four-day range support at $4.18.

Underlying Demand Strength

Natural gas continues to demonstrate resilience near the highs while repeatedly challenging resistance, reflecting sustained buyer interest. This dynamic raises the possibility that one more push higher could materialize before any pullback unfolds. And when correction does arrive, it may remain shallow and short-lived. This is not a prediction, merely a scenario to keep in view.

Bullish Continuation Trigger

Strength reasserts on any rally above the $4.42 trend high established Friday, with the $4.45 ABCD completion as the immediate next objective. A clean, decisive advance through $4.45 would signal the rising trend retains momentum and may have additional upside legs ahead.

Key Downside Levels

First dynamic support arrives at the 10-day moving average, currently $4.01 and rising. Just below sits the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.94, converging with the original rising channel top line—previously resistance and now an untested potential support zone following the recent breakout above it.

Outlook

The $4.41–$4.45 resistance zone holds the near-term key. Persistent failure here likely forces a deeper test of support the four-day range toward $4.18, with $4.01–$3.94 as the follow-on support cluster. A breakout above $4.45, however, validates continuation within the broader channel and opens higher targets. The inside day resolution may provide the next critical directional signal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.