Natural Gas Price Forecast: $4.98 High Rejected – $4.90 Breakout Still Unconfirmed

Tuesday’s Reversal Action

Natural gas extended to a fresh trend high of $4.98 Tuesday but closed in the red after failing to hold gains. The higher daily low at $4.81 offers immediate near-term support; a drop below it opens the path to lower support zones and the first real test of buyer conviction since the recent surge.

Long-Term Breakout on Hold

Monday initially cleared the key March high at $4.90 but settled back below at $4.89. Tuesday’s bearish tone makes another sub-$4.90 close likely, meaning the long-term breakout remains unconfirmed and vulnerable to failure until a decisive daily settlement above that level materializes.

Ascending Triangle Context

Friday delivered a textbook ascending triangle breakout with a strong close above the $4.69 trigger, reinforced by weekly and monthly closes near their highs. That move stays valid, but the anticipated first pullback is now in motion—traders will closely monitor depth and speed for clues about underlying demand.

Key Support Cluster

Immediate dynamic support rests at the rising 10-day average ($4.62), with greater significance at the 20-day average ($4.52) where it recently converged with a major uptrend line. Holding above these levels keeps the short-term structure intact and positions any weakness as a buyable dip.

Upside Objectives Intact

Despite near-term overbought conditions, the broader trend remains bullish as long as support holds.

Confirmation above $4.90 targets the 61.8% long-term Fibonacci retracement at $5.28, with the 200% extension of the rising channel also in play. Prior channel extensions have been respected and could provide dynamic resistance on the way higher.

Outlook

Natural gas is delivering its first sign of weakness after Friday’s bull breakout of an ascending triangle. Respect of the 10-day and 20-day averages would keep the bull case dominant and set up attractive reload zones. A decisive close back above $4.90 then launches the next leg toward $5.28. Until support cracks, expect any weakness to be absorbed and the larger uptrend to resume.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.