Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bear Trend Accelerates Toward Lower Targets

New Retracement Low Confirms Bearish Control

The bear trend in natural gas continued Wednesday, as sellers returned with enthusiasm, leading to a new retracement low of $3.07. That new low followed a successful test of resistance at the falling 10-day moving average for the second day in a row as seen at the high of each day. Sellers remain charge at time of writing and natural gas looks likely to close near the lows of the day and below the prior trend low from Friday at $3.13.

Failed Reclaim of 200-Day Average Reinforces Downtrend

The continuation of the bearish correction follows an unsuccessful attempt to reclaim the 200-day average last week. Resistance was tested near the 200-day line over four days last week and price was rejected each time. Subsequently, the 10-day average fell below the 200-day line for the first time since late-October, showing confirmation that sellers are in charge. Wednesday’s bearish continuation has established a minor lower swing high at $3.50, below both the 200-day and 10-day moving averages.

Lower Targets Come into Focus as Momentum Builds

A long-range red candle will complete for Wednesday with a daily close at a new trend low. This suggests that potential support near a long-term uptrend line could break on the way to the lower 88.6% retracement target at $2.95. It doesn’t need to be reached but bearish momentum seems to be accelerating it could take the trend through potential support near the trendline. There is also a higher monthly low at $2.89 from October. That same price level is identified by the 100% projected target for a falling ABCD pattern. The confluence of target levels could act like a magnet for price.

Reclaim Levels Needed to Signal Stabilization

On the upside, a sustained recovery above the 10-day average, now at $3.42, would provide the first sign of strength. It would need to be followed by a daily close above the lower swing high at $3.50. The 200-day average, currently at $3.55, marks a key overhead resistance zone along with another lower swing high at $3.63. Therefore, a closing above the swing high will confirm a reclaim of the 200-day average.

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