Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bounce Faces Key Barriers Near $2.95 and $3.01

Natural Gas Attempts a Bounce but Trend Remains Bearish

Natural gas attempted to extend gains on Wednesday, rising above Tuesday’s high of $2.87 and establishing a higher daily high and higher low. Resistance, however, quickly emerged at $2.91, triggering an intraday pullback and raising doubts about the sustainability of the one-day bullish reversal pattern. To confirm strength, a daily close above Tuesday’s high is still required.

Short-Term Strength vs. Broader Downtrend

Despite signs of short-term resilience, rallies remain fragile and often short-lived. Natural gas continues to trade within a clearly defined declining trend channel. This keeps the dominant momentum bearish, meaning countertrend bounces are typically capped before sustainable advances develop. A decisive move above the recent lower swing high at $3.17 (C) would be needed to shift sentiment toward the bulls. Until then, strength is likely to be treated as corrective within the broader downtrend.

Key Resistance Levels Ahead

For traders watching near-term momentum, Tuesday’s high and the 10-Day moving average at $2.95 remain important short-term levels. A daily close above these marks would provide the next sign of strength. Beyond that, the 50-Day moving average at $3.01 represents another resistance zone. The structure of the channel itself supports the potential for a bounce toward $3.17, though only as part of a test of the downtrend rather than a confirmed breakout.

Channel Dynamics and Support Tests

Tuesday’s decline to $2.77 essentially marked a test of support around the channel’s center line. That test adds weight to the potential for a bounce. At the same time, the last two swing highs were capped near the upper quarter line of the channel, reinforcing its influence as a guide for resistance. Another attempt to establish a lower swing high near that quarter line would not be surprising if bullish momentum continues in the short term.

Watching for a Larger Pattern Shift

For now, it is too early to call for a lasting reversal until more price action unfolds. A sustained higher swing low above Tuesday’s low would begin to build the case for a potential rising ABCD pattern. That pattern would only trigger on a move above the $3.19 swing high (A). If achieved, the 200-Day moving average at $3.49 becomes a logical target, especially as it converges with the upper boundary of the full declining channel.

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