Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breaks Higher, Eyes $3.75 and $3.81 Levels

Natural gas continued to show strength on Thursday as it triggered a continuation of the counter-trend rally that began on Monday. A momentum hammer candle pattern from Wednesday triggered concurrently with a reclaim of the 20-Day MA, now at $3.38. Subsequently, a bull trend continuation signal was generated on a rally above this week’s prior high of $3.46.

There was also a bullish trendline break on the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator. A daily close above $3.46 will confirm the trend continuation signal, while a closing price above the 20-Day MA will provide another sign of improving demand.

Rising Into Potential Resistance

Nonetheless, natural gas is in a counter-trend rally within a bearish trend structure. It is rising into multiple potential resistance areas. How it behaves around those price levels should leave clues about what may come next. In general, once the 20-Day line is reclaimed, the 50-Day MA becomes a potential upside target. The 50-Day MA is now at $3.81 and falling. It is a little above potential resistance around an AVWAP level at $3.75, anchored at the top of the trend.

Bullish Reversal Week Signals Strength

A bullish weekly reversal triggered this week indicating that a higher swing low has been established for the long-term uptrend and showing the buyers in charge. The uptrend can be defined as a rising parallel trend channel. It is interesting to observe that the middle line of the rising channel (dashed) is rapidly being approached for a test as resistance.

There is a weekly high at $3.61 that can be used as a proxy for the line. If that high can be exceeded, the $3.75 AVWAP level and 50-Day MA become the next upside targets, and it would be another sign of strength on the weekly time frame. A daily close above that weekly high would further confirm strength and increase the chance that natural gas could keep rising.

AVAP Line Showed Support

Note that yesterday support was found at the AVWAP line (light blue) from the recent bottom. Therefore, it may identify support in the future. Short-term support is now around the 20-Day MA and today’s low, which was $3.34.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.