Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Outside Day Targets $4.41–$4.51 Resistance

Current Price Action

Natural gas extended its rally on Thursday, with a high of $4.42 forming a bullish outside day. Price remains on track for the highest daily close since the advance began, and a finish above Wednesday’s $4.35 trend high would confirm a one-day breakout, further validating buyer dominance.

Key Resistance Cluster

Immediate upside hurdles converge in a tight zone: the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.41 aligns with the 161.8% harmonic projection of the rising ABCD pattern at $4.45 (point D). The CD leg mirrors the initial AB advance in symmetrical fashion. Ongoing resistance stems from the top boundary of the rising trend channel—currently a 150% extension—that has capped gains over recent sessions.

Channel Dynamics

Given the steep channel angle, price can reach the slightly higher $4.41–$4.45 targets while still trading near the dynamic top line. This geometry signals the rally may be nearing exhaustion, priming for a pullback once resistance holds. So far, however, reversal signals remain absent.

Prior Strength Confirmed

The recent recapture of June’s interim swing high at $4.19 underscores improving momentum and sets the stage for continuation after any near-term correction. Short-term support rests at the three-day low of $4.18; a break opens an initial retracement toward the 38.2% Fibonacci at $3.94, converging with the rising 10-day average near $3.91. The original channel’s top boundary also offers potential dynamic support.

Broader Channel Context

Natural gas has traded within a well-defined rising channel since the 2024 $1.52 low. July’s false breakdown below the channel triggered a swift recovery and sharp bullish follow-through—classic behavior after failed breakdowns. Trends persist until proven otherwise, and false breaks often precede explosive moves in the opposite direction.

Outlook

Renewed strength Thursday keeps buyers firmly in control and raises conviction for a final push toward the top channel line and $4.41–$4.51 confluence. Watch for exhaustion signals near resistance; any pullback to $4.18–$3.94 should find support and reload for continuation higher within the intact channel structure.

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