Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Recovery Shows Strength

Chart Action

Natural gas slid lower on Friday before finding support at $3.20, bouncing off the 50-day moving average. The 20-day average at $3.27 was breached briefly, but buyers stepped in after testing the 10-day line, pushing prices back above it. Trading holds above $3.27 now, with a daily high of $3.40, poised for a close above the average and a potential bull hammer candlestick—a bullish sign after the dip.

Support Levels

The 50-day line, aligned with the rising trend channel’s centerline, delivered a clear bullish reaction, forming a higher swing low. The quick recovery of the 20-day average and a downtrend line after their failure as support underscores buyer resolve. Such intraday reclamations signal strength, setting the stage for another test of recent highs.

Resistance Zone

Today’s high tested a long-term uptrend line, marking a significant pivot if cleared. The $3.46-$3.59 resistance zone, anchored by the 200-day average and October’s $3.59 swing high (B), has repelled three prior attempts. This first test of the 200-day as resistance since its July support failure adds weight. A fourth push could succeed, given today’s support response.

Trade Setup

The rally from August’s low, the third counter-trend leg since July, eyes a higher swing high above $3.59 to confirm uptrend continuation. A rising ABCD pattern targets $3.71, matching the prior AB leg’s magnitude. Sustaining above $3.27 keeps bulls in control, with $3.46 the next hurdle.

Outlook

The $3.27 close is key—above it locks in the hammer and targets $3.59, below it risks retesting $3.20. The 50-day support and quick recovery favor buyers, but $3.46-$3.59 remains a battleground. Today’s action hints at $3.71 potential if momentum holds—watch for breakout confirmation to fuel the next leg. Further up is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.80.

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