Natural Gas Price Forecast: Buyers Defend Support Zone, Maintains Upside Bias

Natural Gas Holds Firm at Key Support

Natural gas maintained strength on Tuesday despite a pickup in short-term volatility. The session produced an outside day, holding firm around the 20-Day moving average at $2.89. That level was successfully tested as support, with the intraday low reaching $2.87. Multiple technical indicators now converge in this area.

Alongside the 20-Day average, support is also being reinforced by the dashed center line of a falling trend channel, a nearby downtrend line, and the long-term anchored VWAP from the 2024 trend low, currently at $2.96. With four indicators overlapping, this area has become a pivotal support zone for traders to watch.

Resistance Zone Approaches

The bounce high of $3.07 came just short of testing resistance from a long-term uptrend line near $3.12. That line marks the beginning of a significant resistance band between $3.15 and $3.19. This zone includes the 50-Day moving average at $3.16, which is important dynamic resistance. In the near-term the 50-Day cannot be understated. While natural gas has managed several daily closes above the AVWAP at $2.96, the broader downtrend remains intact until the 50-Day is reclaimed and held. Tuesday’s close above the AVWAP, if confirmed, underscores the breakout effort, but the real test lies just ahead.

Next Upside Target and Decision Point

If natural gas can maintain strength above Tuesday’s low at $2.87, momentum favors a push toward the $3.12–$3.19 resistance band. This area aligns with the long-term uptrend line, a pair of interim swing highs, and the upside target from last week’s breakout of a small bull wedge. The 50-Day average is the key decision point for bulls. It last acted as effective resistance in mid-July, triggering a sharp selloff that extended to the recent $2.62 low.

That decline found support at the two-thirds boundary of a wide descending channel, completing a deep retracement. A decisive rally above the 50-Day average would open the door to higher targets, including the 200-Day moving average at $3.50, which would represent the next major challenge for the recovery.

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