Natural Gas Price Forecast: Channel Breakdown Targets $4.07 20-Day Support

Tuesday’s Intraday Reversal

Natural gas opened lower Tuesday, sliding to $4.24 before buyers mounted a sharp recovery that flipped the session positive and pushed toward a $4.40 high. The move retests prior support near Friday’s $4.38 low and the fallen 10-day average at $4.42—classic “bear trap” behavior that requires follow-through to prove meaningful.

Confirmed Breakdown Context

Monday delivered a decisive close below the small rising channel, the 10-day average, and the 150% extended top channel line—all converging in a high-confidence bearish trigger. The decline followed completion of the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.64, signaling the rally’s exhaustion phase is likely complete.

Next Downside Objectives

Loss of the 10-day average shifts focus to the rising 20-day line at $4.07, now approaching the June lower swing high at $4.15 for added confluence. The 38.2% retracement at $4.08 aligns perfectly with the original larger rising channel top (black lines), creating a potentially tight support band.

Deeper Measured Targets

Failure to hold $4.07–$4.08 opens the 50% retracement zone near $3.79. The sharp, sustained rally off the October low leaves the market vulnerable to equally aggressive countertrend selling once former supports flip to resistance.

Weekly Reversal Signal

Tuesday printed another lower high and lower low, triggering a one-day bearish weekly reversal beneath last week’s $4.26 low. A daily close below that level would confirm the weekly shift and accelerate downside momentum, especially with the RSI now exiting overbought territory.

Bullish Recovery Requirement

Only a decisive, sustained push back above the 10-day average at $4.42 and the broken small-channel lower boundary would neutralize the breakdown and restore bullish control. Until then, any bounce remains corrective within a new bearish phase.

Outlook

The multi-indicator breakdown and 88.6% Fib completion favor continued correction toward $4.07–$4.08, with $3.79 as the deeper objective, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $3.58. Today’s bounce tests overhead supply at $4.38–$4.42; rejection here keeps sellers dominant. A weekly close below $4.26 would solidify bearish momentum for the weeks ahead.

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