Natural Gas Price Forecast: Creeps to $5.04 – Eyes First Close Above Prior High

Gradual Upside Progress

Natural gas printed a modest new high of $5.04 Wednesday alongside a higher daily low of $4.82, maintaining the pattern of higher highs and lows despite visibly slower momentum and minimal daily gains. A close above Tuesday’s $4.98 high would confirm escape from a tight three-day range, while settlement above the key $4.90 trend high delivers the first daily close beyond that level since the long-term breakout attempt began on Monday.

Former Resistance Becomes Support

The advance continues to respect extended channel lines born from the rising trend channel that formed off October’s $2.89 low. After the late-October upside breakout, the 175% extension of the channel capped the move at $4.69; this week that same line has repeatedly held as daily support, with Wednesday marking the third consecutive successful test—classic bullish conversion behavior.

Multi-Timeframe Strength

Friday’s clean ascending triangle breakout kicked off the current leg, reinforced by November’s close near monthly highs and the highest monthly settlement since November 2022. A weekly finish above $4.90 this week would lock in trend continuation on that timeframe as well, adding weight to the bull case.

Upside Targets

The primary next upside objective remains the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5.28, with a 200% channel extension sitting just above current levels as potential dynamic resistance as well. New highs can persist with subdued momentum while remaining below the upper channel boundary in route to the Fib zone.

Outlook

Buyers stay firmly in control despite the measured pace, converting prior resistance into support and positioning for the highest daily and potential weekly close in years. A settlement above $4.90 confirms the long-term breakout and targets $5.28 minimum; continued respect of the 175% line on any dips keeps the path of least resistance higher. That scenario starts to change on a drop below the 10-day average, now at $4.68. A drop below the three-day low of $4.76 would first target the 10-day line as support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.