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Natural Gas Price Forecast: Extends Slide Toward Key Support at $2.96

By:
Bruce Powers
Published: Jul 28, 2025, 20:39 GMT+00:00

Natural gas continued its bearish trend on Monday, breaking below key support levels and approaching a critical confluence of support around $2.96.

Natural gas triggered a continuation of its bearish trend on Monday, as it broke down from a small pennant pattern. A bearish signal of the two-day pattern was indicated on a drop below Friday’s low of $3.07 and then the trend low of $3.06. Natural gas is on track to confirm the breakdown with a daily close below $3.06. Sellers remain in charge at the time of this writing as trading continues near the lows of the day, currently at $2.99. Along with the day’s high of $3.14, a lower daily high and lower daily low have been established.

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Next Lower Price Zone is $2.96

The bearish trend continuation signal puts natural gas in sight of testing support around the next lower potential support zone at $2.96. That price is derived from an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) line (light blue) begun from the 2024 trend lows. Price was rejected to the upside twice previously from the area around the line as strong support was seen around the line. A bullish reversal occurred in October 2024 and again following the April bearish correction.

Joined by Trendline Support

The potential significance of the $2.96 area is increased by a long-term rising trendline (purple). which currently marks a similar potential support area. Notice that the AVWAP line has started to converge with the rising trendline at the time the two lines are being approached. When time and prices line up, it is the market’s way of telling us to pay attention to a particular price area.

Failure May Lead to $2.86 or Lower

Despite the potential for support to be seen around the two lines, a decisive decline below both will show continued downward pressure in the price of natural gas and will put lower targets in sight. A lower potential support zone starts with the higher swing low of $2.86 from April, includes the 78.6% projection of a falling ABCD pattern at $2.84, and ends with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.79. There is also a bearish measured move marked on the chart, which matches a recent prior downswing on a percentage basis at $2.79.

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About the Author

With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, Bruce is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder. Having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and a corporate advisor for trading firms, Bruce shares his expertise in futures to retail investors, providing actionable insights through both technical and fundamental analyses.

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