Natural Gas Price Forecast: Holds Firm but Resistance Keeps Advance in Check

Natural Gas Struggles at Resistance

Natural gas remained locked in consolidation on Tuesday, marking the fifth straight session capped by resistance near $3.17 to $3.19. A lower daily high and low were established, yet the market looks set to finish with its strongest daily close since late July, possibly ending above the 50-Day moving average at $3.11. Holding above this level would mark the first successful daily close through the line in nearly six weeks, signaling resilience despite ongoing headwinds.

Consolidation Around Key Pivot Zone

The $3.11 to $3.19 range has now been tested repeatedly, underscoring its importance as a pivotal resistance zone. It includes both the 50-Day moving average and a long-term uptrend line connecting to the August 2024 swing low—previously support, now acting as resistance. Until price establishes a decisive breakout, the failed recovery above this line keeps the larger bearish implications intact from last month’s breakdown. A minor pullback appears increasingly likely before buyers mount another serious attempt higher.

Signs of Strength Beneath Resistance

Short-term bullish signals have surfaced, including a breakout from a small falling wedge, a reclaim of the 20-Day moving average, and a rally above a long-term AVWAP indicator. These factors suggest buyers are active, but without a sustained move through Monday’s $3.20 high, momentum remains capped. A daily close above that level would offer the first true sign of strength capable of shifting the near-term outlook.

Support Levels to Watch

On the downside, several potential support levels cluster near the current range. The long-term AVWAP indicator sits around $2.96, while the 20-Day moving average, now $2.90, closely aligns with the 50% retracement level at $2.91. Together, they create a key support band. A sustained breakdown below this area would tilt control back to sellers and put the recent $2.62 low at risk of being retested.

Bigger Picture Outlook

While natural gas shows signs of resilience, the extended struggle at resistance highlights lingering bearish weight from the broken trendline. The next few sessions will be pivotal. A clean breakout above $3.20 opens the path toward higher resistance, while a close beneath $2.90 signals risk of a bearish continuation. For now, the tug-of-war continues within a narrowing range.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.