Natural Gas Price Forecast: Holds Gains as Momentum Wanes

Wednesday’s Narrow Range Test

Natural gas sustained its upward bias Wednesday, again probing resistance at Tuesday’s $4.58 high and printing an identical daily peak. Price traded in a tight band with clear support at $4.46, and at writing remains positioned to potentially close above Tuesday’s $4.53 level.

Dynamic Support Structure

The 10-day average has climbed sharply to $4.31, now above the lows of the past seven sessions. This elevated dynamic line suggests any near-term pullback may stay shallow and recover quickly, while a decisive break below it would signal meaningful short-term weakening.

Deeper Downside Levels

A drop beneath the seven-day low of $4.18 would further confirm bearish pressure. Should the 10-day fail, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.94 aligns with the original top channel line as the next major support zone. The rising 20-day average, soon to surpass that channel line and approach the $3.94 area, may add confluence.

Resistance Cluster

Strength persists despite multiple overhead hurdles, including the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.41, the cleared 150% channel extension, and now the emerging test of the 175% channel line. Natural gas continues to absorb supply while pushing higher.

Weekly and Consolidation Context

This marks the fourth straight week of higher weekly highs and lows. Over the past eight sessions, bullish momentum has moderated into a small rising consolidation channel—defined by a newly drawn lower boundary line tracking recent price action. Sustained trade above the 10-day average can extend this pattern.

Momentum Requirement

To maintain upside potential and realistically challenge the 2025 $4.90 peak, bullish momentum must accelerate. Failure to do so heightens pullback risk within the current tight structure.

Outlook

Natural gas remains in a bullish posture as long as the 10-day average at $4.31 and rising consolidation channel hold. A close above $4.58 would target the 175% channel extension and keep $4.90 viable. Any decisive drop below $4.31–$4.18 opens the path to $3.94 support; the 20-day average will provide the next critical decision point on deeper correction.

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