Natural Gas Price Forecast: Holds Key Support as Bullish Reversal Builds

Natural gas continues to show signs of strength following Wednesday’s bullish three-day reversal trigger. The pattern remains intact, and Thursday’s price action reinforces the developing bullish structure. The day’s low of $3.04 marked a successful test of support at a short-term downtrend line that had previously functioned as resistance. That level held firm, supporting the case for a potential shift in sentiment as prior resistance transitions into support.

Long-Term Support Anchors Current Advance

Importantly, natural gas is also holding above a confluence of long-term support levels, including the rising long-term uptrend line and the anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), currently at $2.97. The uptrend line intersects around $3.02. This support zone is beginning to establish itself as a potential pivot area, having absorbed recent downside momentum and sparked the current advance. It reinforces the bullish reversal pattern from Wednesday and adds to the growing evidence that downside risk may be diminishing in the near term.

Confirmation of Strength

The successful retest of support on Thursday is technically significant. Not only did the market respect the former downtrend line, but it also held above Wednesday’s low, preserving the integrity of the three-day reversal. Maintaining this structure raises the probability of further upside follow-through. Traders will now look to a daily close above Wednesday’s high of $3.10 as confirmation that bullish momentum is strengthening.

Resistance Targets

With support now well-defined and momentum beginning to shift, natural gas may be positioned to challenge key resistance levels. The recovery from long-term technical support, combined with recent intraday behavior, signals a possible change in market tone. However, additional bullish evidence will be needed to confirm improved underlying demand. On Thursday, the price surpassed the interim swing high of $3.13 and reached a new short-term high of $3.15, further improving the short-term outlook.

The initial upside target sits at the lower swing high of $3.19. A move above that level would trigger a reversal of the immediate downtrend, confirmed by a daily close above it. Just above, potential resistance looms near the falling 20-Day moving average, currently at $3.22. Given the line’s declining trajectory, it may coincide with the $3.19 swing high by the time price tests the area. A sustained advance through this zone would be the next signal suggesting natural gas has room to move higher.

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