Natural Gas Price Forecast: Inside Day Tests 10-Day Support as Advance Stalls

Thursday’s Inside Day Pullback

Following Wednesday’s dramatic one-day hammer reversal and surge to $4.81, natural gas consolidated Thursday in a classic inside day. The session high repeatedly tested Wednesday’s peak as resistance, while the $4.65 low successfully defended the rising 10-day average—currently approximating $4.67—confirming its flip from resistance to reliable dynamic support.

10-Day Line Critical

Wednesday’s decisive close above the 10-day line marked a clear bullish reversal after a brief violation days earlier. A daily close back below $4.67 today would jeopardize that signal and return short-term bias to bearish. Minor or brief dips with swift recovery remain tolerable in a strong trend.

Higher Low Structure

Wednesday’s $4.57 low established the current higher daily low sequence. A decisive drop beneath it would erase that bullish distinction and invite a deeper test of the rising 20-day average at $4.47, now converging with a supporting uptrend line for enhanced significance.

Broader Resistance Context

The entire advance continues to probe the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement zone of the prior major decline. Sustained trade and a close above Wednesday’s $4.81 high is required to confirm continuation momentum and head towards a challenge the recent trend high at $4.88.

Measured Upside Extensions

A clean break above $4.88–$4.95 (March 2025 peak) unlocks $4.96 as the immediate next objective, followed by $5.14. The 127.2% extension of the recent pullback defines the first new trend-high projection, while the 161.8% extension outlines the stronger measured move if bulls stay aggressive.

Outlook

Thursday’s inside day crystallizes the 10-day average at $4.67 and higher low at $4.57 as the immediate defensive line for bulls. Hold this zone to protect Wednesday’s hammer reversal and drive toward $4.88–$4.96 in the sessions ahead. A close below $4.57 shifts focus to the 20-day/uptrend confluence at $4.47; only sustained weakness beneath that level would meaningfully threaten the broader bullish structure.

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