Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Breaks Trendline

Natural gas markets broke through a major trendline during the trading session on Thursday, as the inventory numbers came out at a -1 billion as opposed to the expected -17,000,000,000 ft.³. With this in mind, it suggests that the market was going to show signs of a lack of demand, but at this point in time this is very unlikely to be a longer-term situation. In fact, I think this may offer a nice buying opportunity underneath as the 200 day EMA sits at the $2.44 level. We will still see quite a bit of support and demand going forward, as the markets will have to price in the fact that the weather in the United States is getting colder.

NATGAS Video 04.12.20

The demand will continue to be very high for the next few months, as the market is going to continue to see a lot of cold temperatures in the United States that will drive up demand regardless. Ultimately, we are already starting to see a little bit of a pushback against the selling pressure so I think that there will be a continuation of the longer-term uptrend although we have broken through the uptrend line. The 200 day EMA is very interesting for most longer-term traders, and I do think that we will go to the upside given enough time. I think what we need to see is a day or so of stability before we start buying, and therefore continue to try to push to the upside. Underneath, if we were to break the 200 day EMA then it would be very negative, opening up the possibility of a complete wipeout. I do not expect that to be the case though.

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