Natural Gas markets rose again on Thursday but will still face a lot of headwinds going forward.
Taking a look at the natural gas markets, you can see that we have rallied a bit early during the trading session again on Thursday. Not really a big surprise considering that we had plunged so drastically over the last couple of months, but at this point we have to ask what’s left of winter. There might be a storm or two that could cause a spike in the price of natural gas, but it’s easy to see that natural gas has been a major bust this winter. We just simply haven’t had the winter weather yet. In fact, I live in Ohio and we’ve yet to see snow.
This is awfully late in the year to begin winter, and before you know it, we will be talking about spring. In fact, futures markets are already pricing in the month of February, so while we may get the occasional storm that could push prices higher, I’m not expecting any type of massive breakout. The $3 level above probably offers a bit of a ceiling, and the extreme would be $3.33.
I believe that the $2 level will be held as support. So essentially, I think we’re heading into a very range-bound market, not only for now, but I think probably for most of the year. $2 is a major floor. We may overshoot a little bit. That’s the nature of markets, but I don’t think we go much lower than that. In the short term, if we can break above the 50-day EMA, we could make a move to $2.86.
But anything above there, I think you have to start thinking about taking profits because the market is not one that’s overly bullish as there is an oversupply due to a lack of cold weather. With all of this, I do not expect fireworks in this market, which is a huge surprise to be quite honest. You will have to watch weather reports in the Northeastern United States in order to trade this market, but even then, all rallies are short-term based more than anything else.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.