Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas continues to look sluggish

Natural gas markets went back and forth during early trading on Monday, essentially going nowhere. This is a market that remains sluggish, and quite frankly should be because there isn’t much in the way of demand compared to the massive amounts of supply that are out there.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, August 13, 2019

Natural gas markets went back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as the markets continue to struggle in general. With that being the case, I start to look for a larger round figures that I can take advantage of as guidelines. The $2.20 level should be resistance, just as the 50 day EMA which is pictured in red should be. I think that it’s only a matter time before we roll over, reaching down towards the lower levels again. Quite frankly, we are trading the September contract, which of course is a relatively comfortable month in the northern hemisphere overall, and therefore it’s very likely that we will continue to see sellers come into this market every time we try to rally.

NATGAS Video 13.08.19

If we break above the 50 day EMA, then we could go to the $2.50 level, but that’s something that I don’t expect to see anytime soon. All things being equal, market participants will continue to take advantage of value if and when they can get it. I think at this point, if we were to break down below the $2.00 level, that would be an extraordinarily negative turn of events, and I think that we would probably continue to see a lot of volatility on the way out. Regardless though, I think it’s only a matter of time before the sellers come back in and punish this market for the oversupply that is nowhere near being worked through.

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