Natural Gas Price Forecast: $4.40 High Tests Extension Targets

Rally Hits New High

Natural gas advanced on Tuesday, reaching a new trend high of $4.40 before sellers took back control with an intraday pullback. The day’s low of $4.18 established the fourth consecutive day of higher highs and higher lows, showing sustained upward momentum. At the time of writing, natural gas risks falling below the day’s halfway mark at $4.29 and might close in a relatively weak position on the day, reflecting profit-taking after the sharp move.

Upside Targets

Two target levels sit just above. A 78.6% Fibonacci target at $4.41 was nearly reached today, followed by the 161.8% projection for a rising ABCD pattern from August’s low (A) at $4.45. Together, they form the next upside target zone from $4.41 to $4.45, a critical area where resistance could intensify.

Exhaustion Signs

The intraday pullback may indicate early signs of short-term exhaustion, while a rise above a 150% extended top for a rising trend channel (dashed blue) supports that analysis. The top channel line was exceeded today after finding resistance there yesterday, suggesting the rally is stretching into overbought territory.

Support Levels

Near-term support is today’s $4.18 low. A sustained drop below it would trigger a one-day bearish reversal, potentially opening a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.94. First, the June swing high at $4.15 would be tested — very close to today’s low. Consider a support range from $4.18 to $4.15 as a likely defense zone.

Bullish Context

The breakout above June swing highs shows potential for higher prices following a correction of some degree. The advance from August’s low (A) began with a failed breakdown from a long-term rising trend channel. Failed breakouts often lead to sharp moves in the opposite direction, which is exactly what we’ve seen recently for natural gas. This technical dynamic suggests further upside is possible, although the rally is likely getting closer to a pause for now.

Outlook

The close above $4.29 is key — above it targets $4.41-$4.45, below risks $4.18. The failed breakdown and channel extension favor bulls as long as $4.15 holds. Watch for exhaustion or continuation — $3.94 shows initial downside on any correction. Momentum remains bullish, but a pullback could offer better entry if support proves firm.

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