Natural Gas Price Forecast: Natural Gas Hits 1.57, Lowest in Trend

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 16.02.24 by Bruce Powers

The sellers remain in control of the price of natural gas as it hits a new trend low of 1.57, for the eighth consecutive day of lower daily highs and lower lows. Despite signs of strength seen earlier in Thursday’s trading session it continues to trade near the lows of the day, at the time of this writing. A daily close below yesterday’s low of 1.59 will indicate more weakness than a close above yesterday’s low. Nevertheless, natural gas remains in an aggressive decline following a drop to a new trend low last Thursday.

Continues to Test 1.60 Price Zone for Support

For the past two days natural gas has been trading in an area of possible support around 1.61/1.60. Wednesday closed right at that price zone. But a daily close below 1.60 will indicate further weakness and an increased likelihood that selling could continue and not reverse at 1.60. That would put the next lower target zone of 1.52 in sight. That price area is part of the historical price structure, and it marked a monthly support area in 2020. An extended retracement of the most recent rising multi month trend channel targets 1.49. Further down is the 28 and a half year low of 1.44.

Downtrend Shows No Signs of Letting Up

Certainly, natural gas is getting extended on the downside. As of Thursday’s low, it had fallen as much as 53.6% below the January 9 swing high of 3.39 (C). That’s more than a 13% greater decline than seen in any prior peak to tough measurement since the February 2023 trend low. It speaks to the degree of bearishness currently in the market.

Nonetheless, the trend continues until it changes. Since there are no signs yet of it changing, the expectation is for a further slide. However, when the bottom and subsequent bullish reversal arrives it could arrive quickly and be followed by an enthusiastic rally up towards prior support levels.

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