Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas markets at extreme lows

The underlying natural gas futures were not open on Good Friday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t take a look at the charts and glean some information going forward. As we roll through the Easter weekend, it’s easy to see that we are at a very important spot.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, April 22, 2019

Natural gas markets went back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, and of course on Friday were closed. Ultimately, this is a market that is at an extreme low right now, as the $2.50 level has been massive support going back quite some time. In fact, before the wintertime rally, $2.50 was crucial then as well. The fact that we are down at this lower level suggests that we are at a very important level that needs to be resolved.

NATGAS Video 22.04.19

That being said, we have not had the proper price action to start buying at this level. We could break down, and if we do it probably opens the door to the $2.25 level, possibly even the $2.00 level after that. That would be a horrific turn of events for the buyers, and quite frankly it could represent a certain amount of capitulation over the next several sessions. This is simply a momentum trade to the downside if we break down from here and below the range from Thursday, but you should keep in mind that it is probably a short-term set up.

On the other side of the equation, if we can break above the highs from the Thursday session the risk to reward ratio certainly favors a move towards the $2.70 level, possibly even the top of the range which is $3.00, but obviously that would take some time to get there. The next daily candle stick should be very telling as to where we go next.

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