Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Break Down

Natural gas markets fell during the trading session on Monday after initially trying to rally, as we are forecasting warmer temperatures in the United States. This of course drive down demand and therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see prices drop. After all, we had seen a significant amount of supply destruction recently, but now that the warmer temperatures have returned to the central part of the United States, more supply of natural gas comes into play. At this point, we are threatening the 200 day EMA which is at the $2.57 level.

NATGAS Video 09.03.21

To the upside, the 50 day EMA sits at the $2.77 level, showing signs of potential resistance. All things being equal, I do think that we continue to drop towards the $2.40 level as I have been saying for some time, and I believe that any signs of rallies should be looked at with extreme skepticism, and therefore I would be a seller of any signs of exhaustion after a rise in prices. If we can break down below the $2.30 level, then it opens up a move down to the $2.00 level, a price that I would not be surprised at all to see sometime this summer. To the upside, I believe that the ceiling is at the $3.00 level, perhaps even as low as the $2.80 level.

I have absolutely no interest in buying this market, as the oversupply of natural gas is something that continues to plague pricing of this commodity. I know that there is the “reopening trade” that a lot of people are trying to put money into, but quite frankly natural gas is nowhere near being scarce enough to see massive upward pressure.

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