Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Attempt Recovery

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 10.05.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of life. Ultimately, the market looks as if it will go toward the 50-Day EMA, an area that has been important multiple times and sits below the crucial $2.50 level. Alternatively, if we break above there, the market could look to the $3.00 level, the top of the recent consolidation area we have been in for some time.

Alternatively, this market continues to see a lot of back-and-forth behavior, but I also recognize that the market is in a seasonally weak time of year, so it is still easier to short this market than buy it. Alternatively, signs of exhaustion will be jumped on to start selling, and I believe that the $2.00 level underneath is an area where we could see a lot of fight, but even if we break down below there, the market could likely drift down to the $1.80 level, which is the bottom of the “support zone” that I think will continue to be crucial. Anything below $1.80 would be very negative, but I think that is a tall order for the short sellers to overcome. Ultimately, I think this continues to be more or less a “fade the rally” type of situation, at least until the end of the summer.

Keep in mind that the temperatures will be warmer, so demand will be much weaker than it would be in winter. However, the occasional heat spike could drive prices higher, but that is a temporary situation. Furthermore, if the global economy is going to slow down, the demand for crude oil for industrial power will continue to drift lower. That being said, by the time we get through the summer, then the Europeans are going to have to refill their natural gas stocks, meaning that they will have to import from various places around the world, as Norway can only pick up so much of the slack from Russian gas. With that, it should continue to put upward pressure on the Henry Hub contract, which of course is the most widely traded natural gas market.

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