Natural gas markets have rallied again during the day on Friday, after a very bullish Thursday. At this point, it looks like the recovery continues.
Natural gas markets have rallied slightly during the session on Friday as it looks like we are trying to reach toward the $3 level. That’s an area that has been resistance previously, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we may try to get there to retest it. Furthermore, the $3.00 level is a large, round, psychological significant figure, and of course would attract a lot of attention one way or the other.
Signs of exhaustion will be jumped on by most traders, but the market had gotten so sold off that is not a huge surprise that we try to get back to this level. Ultimately, the $3.00 level will probably be difficult to get beyond, as it is not only a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area that has offered resistance in the past.
Typically, natural gas will settle into some type of summer range, and at this point I think we are trying to reach the top of it again. It is obvious that the $2.00 level underneath is a significant support level, so respecting that as a potential bottom in the market makes quite a bit of sense. However, if we were to break down below the $2.00 level, it is probably somewhat limited in how much further to the downside we could go. I suspect that there is a “zone of support” down to the $1.80 level based upon previous trading action in the past.
Either way, keep natural gas in your mind for a potential short opportunity, but we need the price action to line up with that. Short-term traders that have jumped on this move to the upside of done quite well, but it’s worth it noting that if the market does make a move toward the $3.00 level, that will have been a 50% increase, which obviously is a bit overdone.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.