Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Do Very Little

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 07.04.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets are essentially killing time at this point, sitting just above the $2.00 level. The $2.00 level typically is an area of interest during the warmer months, and it’s not uncommon to be in a bit of a sleepy market as demand will drop. The range right now looks to be between the $2 and the $3 levels, with the 50-Day EMA sitting right around the $2.71 level and is dropping. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately this is a market that is very much in a downtrend, so I have no interest in buying it.

Furthermore, it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see more of a “fade the rally” type of attitude, as temperatures start to rise in the northern hemisphere. After all, heating demand will drop quite drastically, and we are nowhere near the hot season, so air conditioning demand is not going to be a factor. Furthermore, the market continues to be one that will have to pay close attention to the industrial demand, which is almost certainly falling off of a cliff at this point.

After all, it looks like we are heading into a global recession, so then you have to ask whether or not the demand for natural gas is going to pick up anytime soon. In this environment, I think that’s very unlikely, so at this point in time I think that the $3 level will end up being a major resistance barrier. Even if we do break above there, it is probably only a matter of time before we start to see sellers come back in. At this point, I’m waiting to see some type of big wick to the upside that I can start shorting off of.

If we do break down below the $2.00 level, then it is possible that we could drop down to the $1.80 level, which also has had a bit of noise in the past. Nonetheless, I don’t think selling in this area is very prudent, because at this point you have to ask who’s left to sell?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.